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Monday, 11 December 2017

Latest IFR Report - IFR IMF/World Bank Report 2017

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  • Overcoming the wall of uncertainty

    Overcoming the wall of uncertainty

    By Jason Mitchell

    A year ago, many economic commentators in Mexico were predicting the economy would fall into a recession as Donald Trump soared in opinion polls in the US. In fact, GDP is expanding at 2.3% a year and the Mexican business community has become more relaxed about now-president Trump’s threats to build a wall between the two countries and his insistence that the Mexicans pay for it.

  • The real deal

    The real deal

    By Jason Mitchell

    Between 2014 and 2016, only four IPOs took place in Brazil, although the market has taken off this year. According to Thomson Reuters data, Brazil’s equity capital markets deals have more than tripled to 19 from the start of the year to August 23, compared with the same period last year. So far, US$6.7bn has been raised this year.

  • To forgive or not to forgive

    To forgive or not to forgive

    By Solomon Teague

    Greece’s creditors remain divided. The EU remains committed to ensuring Greece achieves its primary budget surplus of 3.5%, the fulfilment of which has forced the country to make deep cuts in spending. Yet the IMF believes the figure is unrealistic and has argued for some debt to be forgiven, allowing it to ease cuts and shift the focus onto productivity-boosting structural reforms. For the Eurogroup, debt forgiveness is politically problematic.

  • Temporary reprieve

    Temporary reprieve

    By Solomon Teague

    The attempted coup in July 2016 cast a long shadow over Turkey’s economy, weighing on foreign investment and the currency and deterring tourists, thereby undermining growth. And while sentiment picked up towards the end of the year, Turkey’s constitutional referendum in April provided fresh uncertainty, removing democratic checks and balances and increasing the risk of sudden policy changes.

  • Corning shatters yen stereotype

    Corning shatters yen stereotype

    By David Rothnie

    US company Corning is famous developing the glass encasement for Thomas Edison’s light bulb, Nowadays, it also produces damage-resistant glass covers for smartphones and tablets, but in August, the company had a light-bulb moment of its own, becoming the first Triple B rated company to print a yen bond in 2017.

  • Light green pastures

    Light green pastures

    By Nick Herbert

    The Green bond market made great strides towards maturity in 2016 as new issue volumes almost doubled from 2015, peaking near the US$100bn mark – depending on the definition of Green, that is. Of that, roughly half the paper came from EM borrowers.

  • More debt, no fear

    More debt, no fear

    By Nick Herbert

    In its global debt monitor of April 2017, the Institute of International Finance highlighted the extent to which EM debt levels had increased. It notes that US$39trn in debt was raised by EM borrowers between 2006 and 2016. Of that, the foreign currency component had more than doubled to US$7.2trn. The phrase ‘EM debt crisis’ was muttered.

  • Straight and narrow

    Straight and narrow

    By Adrian Murdoch

    In the 13th century BC, the Egyptian pharaoh Ramesses II had a remarkably direct and pragmatic approach to financing. When in doubt, his soldiers simply invaded neighbouring countries. The long reign of the country’s greatest pharaoh was characterised by his not-infrequent military adventures across what is now the Middle East and south into modern Sudan.

  • A clean house

    A clean house

    By Adrian Murdoch

    A year ago, Masala bonds – rupee-denominated debt sold to offshore investors – were the new kids on the block. With the support of both prime minister Narendra Modi and the notoriously conservative Reserve Bank of India, the country’s central bank, they were being touted as a potential saviour of the economy; drivers of future growth.

  • Banking on ASEAN integration

    Banking on ASEAN integration

    The ASEAN Banking Integration Framework is one layer of the ASEAN Economic Community, an entity modelled on the European single market. The AEC comprises four interrelated ambitions: realising a single market and production base; creating a highly competitive economic region; achieving equitable economic development; and full regional integration into the global economy.

  • Banks crawl through fog of resolution

    Resolution fog

    A strong regulatory sense of purpose and direction of travel around capital, liquidity and, more specifically, bank resolution has run headlong at a macro level into a potentially toxic triumph of politics over policy and at a micro level into puzzlement around how point of non-viability is determined and what processes ensue.

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