Body armour and a very thick skin

IFR 2091 11 July to 17 July 2015
7 min read
EMEA

WAS THE UNCEREMONIOUS firing of the Barclays CEO this past week a simple case of Antony Jenkins not being up to the job of leading the bank through its long list of issues? Or did he fall victim to a new phenomenon sweeping the banking sector? We’ve had too big to fail; we’ve had too big to manage. Are we now entering an era of impossible to manage?

It surely can’t be coincidence that in just a few weeks Jenkins has followed Anshu Jain, Juergen Fitschen, Brady Dougan and Peter Sands – all dealing with the thorny task of rewiring their institutions – through those revolving doors to ignominy?

The sheer difficulty of managing the complex restructuring process ordered by regulators who refuse to co-operate (in the case of Barclays think UK ringfence and US intermediate holding company); of simplifying and delayering some truly complex organisations; significantly upping returns during a period of zero interest rates, low client trading velocity and spotty M&A activity to achieve tough ROE hurdles; hacking risk-weighted assets; ditching businesses and thousands of staff; and managing still-evolving capital, liquidity and leverage ratios has to be a nightmare.

Any one of those elements would exercise any CEO. But coming all at once? I’ve been pretty mean to Jenkins in my comments so while I repeat, in answer to my own question at the top, that he wasn’t up to the job because he wasn’t a leader, came across as aloof and indecisive, dithered, exuded no passion, and had what insiders say was an irritating fixation with that silly “go-to” slogan, the additional background context I’m adding now is that I’m not sure it’d be a walk in the park for anyone.

Are Barclays and Deutsche – the two banks with out-size investment banks that seem to be in a bit of a funk – suffering a crisis of leadership? I mean, DB just appointed John Cryan to run the bank. Is he the guy to lead Deutsche Bank into the next cycle? No. Cryan is to Deutsche what Jenkins was to Barclays, a stand-in while they figure out what they want to be. Jenkins has never had the support of the board as a long-term CEO; Cryan was a shot-gun CEO and there’s no getting away from that.

Thinking about the qualities listed by Barclays chairman John McFarlane for the new CEO, you wonder if that person exists. He wants someone who understands investment banking as well as consumer and retail; someone with experience of Barclays’ key markets (UK, US and Africa); someone who can deal with those intractable internal issues I listed above, as well as someone who can lead the bank into a build-cycle of revenue growth. Good luck.

Slasher McFarlane has his knives out and will have no compunction in using them without warning

I DON’T THINK anyone the bookies have got in their sights fulfils all of those characteristics. Finance director Tushar Morzaria is everyone’s favourite but I just don’t see him in the top role. With allowances for an element of reductio ad absurdium in summarising his career in three words: he’s an accountant. But is he a leader?

Will he be able to pull the executive committee into line, instil a sense of purpose and passion, eliminate the fiefdoms that Jenkins left unchecked, create an ethos of proper accountability, shared purpose and collaboration, and lead from the front as the bank seeks revenue growth?

I’m not seeing it. He got his big bump up when he moved in 2013 from JP Morgan, where he was CFO of the investment bank, to the group finance role at Barclays. I reckon he’s gone far enough for the time being. He may well be the bookies’ favourite but he’s the wrong guy.

The bookies have their odds on a predictable bunch. External names include Lloyd’s CEO Antonio Horta-Osorio; Cameron Clyne (CEO of NAB); Gord Nixon (former CEO of RBC); Andrea Orcel (head of UBS’s investment bank and slightly implausible in my view); Mike Smith (who made the 2012 shortlist and who’s expected to stand down as CEO of ANZ this year); Colm Kelleher (president of institutional securities at Morgan Stanley, approached last time and mentioned again in dispatches); and Jes Staley (former head of JPM’s investment bank and a rank outsider in my view).

Other internal candidates are Jonathan Moulds, group COO since February and current IB head Tom King. Both have odds of 5/1. I endorsed Moulds as a potential successor in January when it became clear that Jenkins wasn’t long for Barclays; I stand by that. My top picks? Kelleher, Horta-Osorio and Moulds. I’m not saying these are necessarily front-runners; I’m just reckon they’d be good in the job.

AS FOR TOM King, even though McFarlane backed him in a simmering dispute with Jenkins over the future of the investment bank, the indications are that he’s not tipped to be around for long. He threatened to walk if Jenkins didn’t back down; insiders now say there’s as much chance of him being fired if the investment bank’s performance doesn’t show signs of sustainable improvement soon.

I’m mightily perplexed, by the way, by the contradictions that have emerged in discussions around the investment bank. I hear McFarlane and deputy chairman Mike Rake are both in favour of maintaining a big IB presence (hence McFarlane’s backing for King). But every analyst and shareholder who’s quoted is rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of the new CEO continuing Jenkins’ path of cutting the IB even more deeply. I don’t get it.

Anyway, to finish, here’s a fun-filled scenario to you to ponder: bearing in mind Barclaycard CEO Val Soranno Keating has already quit, if King quits or is sacked that would leave divisions accounting for 56% of Q1 adjusted PBT headless. If Morzaria doesn’t get the top job and walks, the group would be CFO-less too. Slasher McFarlane has his knives out and will have no compunction in using them without warning. Whatever happens, whoever gets the job as Barclays CEO needs to arrive with very thick skin – and full body armour.

Keith Mullin