BoE Watch

Quick read
Divyang Shah

Specifically the BoE says that the weaker global growth outlook has largely been offset by lower market rate expectations. The market expects the first rate hike in Oct 2015 and also looks for a more limited and gradual tightening cycle.

There is nothing in the report to suggest that the BoE is willing to consider a rate hike before H2 2015 and in fact the BoE is supportive of the market view that the first rate hike will happen in Oct 2015.

The lack of near term inflation pressures is confirmed by the BoE indicating that inflation will more likely than not fall below 1% over the next 6-months.

The BoE remains data dependent and the data over the last three months have moved in the direction of delaying liftoff.

There is little reason to believe that the forecast of the first rate hike will not be delayed further into 2016 as incoming data shows that downside risks to global growth and inflation remain in play.

Divyang Shah
Carney