I am afraid that I sadly belong to that rather miserable 42% whose marriage ends in divorce. In the aftermath, I have often wondered whether just one more compromise might not have sufficed to save it. Despite being entirely cognisant of the answer, I will, in quiet moments, surely ask myself that question over and over for the rest of my life.
I shall also surely be asking myself whether I shouldn’t have acknowledged much earlier that the bonds of trust were irreparably broken and that all the money I threw at trying to buy back past happiness would ultimately be for nought.
With that, my friends, Greece should be dealt with for today.
Unfortunately, there is a bit more to add. British law offers us the chance of a “clean break” and although the former Mrs. P – now married to a knight of the realm and hence a Lady – wandered off with a goodly chunk of our joint assets which included half of 35 years of my pension savings, I live to fight another day.
In the case of Greece a departure, should it happen, the future will be fraught with complications. I can still not get my head around what the seemingly unavoidable causal connection is between a Greek debt default and it being expelled from the European Union – there are more than a couple of countries which are perfectly loyal and compliant members of the Union without ever having adopted the euro – but even that would be messy.
Spare a thought for all the Greek employees of the ECB. Do they get to keep their jobs on their merits or do they have to clear their desks? If they have to go, is that telling us that they were never there due to their qualification to do the job but simply because of the passport they carry? And think what then happens in and around Brussels in the event of a full Grexit.
Meanwhile, the pedalling goes on. Our old friend, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, is still betting, as he told the BBC in an interview, that the creditors are only bluffing. He might well do so as long as EU Parliamentary President Martin Schulz is loafing about telling anybody who cares to listen that talks haven’t broken down but are merely interrupted and that there are still chances for an agreement to be reached.
The Muppet in Chief, Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, on the other hand has clearly lost patience and has made it perfectly clear that a Greek exit from the eurozone will be prepared for, unless the Troika, which is according to the popular mandate with Syriza came to power no longer allowed to be called the Troika, advises Brussels that a proper written accord is close to being signed by Thursday at the latest.
Syriza was elected on a platform which promised to give away what it didn’t have to give away and to take back what wasn’t its in the first place. As the old saying goes, when you’re up to your arse in crocodiles, it’s easy to forget that the original objective was to drain the swamp. Once could go on, but the message is that Brussels is cautiously getting out the tin hats and flak jackets while Athens is standing outside gaily juggling the bottles of nitro-glycerine.
If I were a betting man, I’d still be calling odds even on the outcome in the certain knowledge that eurozone tax-payers will ultimately be stuffed either way.
The morning after…
That said, as in the case of a divorce, one has to begin to imagine life after separation and to make one’s plans accordingly. I don’t agree with CNBC that markets are complacent. I just think that Greece’s exit from the eurozone will have a minimal impact on the world economy. Greece will, after a period of hiatus, have the chance to grow again but the eurozone will be relieved of an irksome drift anchor and will be a better, more positive place for it.
Sure, the write-downs on all that Greek debt will hurt but as most of it is in the public sector where the ability to shovel it around, to hide it and to spread the losses over a long period of time are greater, we won’t get the same effect as we would have done if it had all be owned by the banks and by institutional investors. There is no systemic risk. If Greece goes and markets tank, buy the living daylights out of them!
I heard my old colleague Justin Urquhart Stewart on the TV this morning suggesting that Greece is a side show and that the real issue is what becomes of France. I agree with him that Greece has for some time kept the flies off the bride. France has much work to do and its metrics aren’t great, but it has an uncanny ability to leverage any overall recovery better than any other country around and, if the eurozone really is beginning to turn the corner, it will be the greatest beneficiary as it is the one which did least to cut production capacity. It can gear up at the touch of a button.
Anyhow, with June 18 looming, I shall save words on France for Thursday. But let’s get June 17 and the FOMC meeting out of the way first. No fear about what they might or might not do; it will all be about what they have to say about what they haven’t done.
