Divyang Shah, IFR Senior Strategist
Divyang's focus is in following broad macro trends globally with a view to building a tradable analytical framework. He was editor of the flagship products at IDEAglobal as well as head of FX research and then moved to Chief Strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia before joining IFR.
The lack of a hiccup in the first round paves the way for no upset in the second and final round of the French presidential election and a likely win for Emmanual Macron.
The latest set of eurozone PMI data show resilience in the growth/inflation momentum over the last few months. This in turn helps strengthen the case for a shift in rate forward guidance likely to be communicated at the June ECB meeting.
The odd wobble on a trend is not new and has been a feature of many markets, as it is rare for prices to move in a straight line. It is through this lens that we should view the current wobble on equity markets, which remains corrective after the exuberant run-up since the US election.