Monday, 22 July 2019

Divyang Shah' s stories

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  • Chinese flag

    COMMENT - China growth, quality or quantity?

    Ticker | 15 July 2019

    The weakest growth in China during Q2 for at least 27 years has led to the usual reaction of 1) increased concerns over global growth; and 2) calls for more fiscal and monetary policy stimulus.

  • European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters

    COMMENT: ECB - What about the refi rate?

    Ticker | 10 July 2019

    The ECB is expected to reduce the deposit rate but what will happen to the refi rate that is currently at zero?

  • Divyang Shah

    COMMENT: ECB - Rate cut in July on inflation expectations concern

    Ticker | 05 July 2019

    What was clear from the ECB’s reaction function back in 2014/15 was that a decline in inflation expectations was a driving force behind QE/APP. The latest decline in inflation expectations is likely to be just as important a rationale in restarting QE with the added likelihood of more flexible issue/issuer limits.

  • IMF

    COMMENT: No, no, no, no, no, no...da, da, da, da, da. Oh, all right then

    Ticker | 03 July 2019

    Last September, Christine Lagarde was quoted in an FT interview as saying “No, no, no no, no no? .?.?.? I am not interested in any of the European – ECB, commission, da da da da da – jobs, no,” but she has now been tapped to replace Mario Draghi as president of the ECB.

  • Divyang Shah

    COMMENT: Larger depo cut as 10-year Bunds look to break -0.40%

    Ticker | 03 July 2019

    The 10-year Bund yield has come very close to trading through the ECB’s deposit rate of -0.40%. The low so far has been -0.399%, according to Refinitiv data, and is more of a milestone than of any policy relevance.

  • Divyang Shah

    COMMENT - ECB: Lane's first speech supports easing package view

    Ticker | 02 July 2019

    The European Central Bank’s Philip Lane delivered his first speech yesterday after taking on the role as chief economist in June. Lane provides a defence of the ECB’s policy and its effectiveness as well as signalling the ability to deliver more if that is what’s needed.

  • ECB could disenfranchise itself from bondholder votes

    People & Markets | 28 June 2019

    The European Central Bank and its 19 associated national banks could buy more than its self-imposed limit of one-third of any debt issue by a eurozone member thanks to a clause allowing it to disenfranchise itself from restructuring votes.

  • Divyang Shah

    COMMENT: ECB - Issue flexibility via "disenfranchisement" clause

    Ticker | 27 June 2019

    There was an important scoop from Reuters yesterday regarding a legal loophole that would allow the ECB to expand QE without having to worry about the issue limit and related collective action clauses.

  • Divyang Shah

    COMMENT: BoE - Time to come off the Brexit fence

    Ticker | 26 June 2019

    It is one thing not wanting to be politically neutral but it is another to shy away from providing your best independent views on likely policy outcomes.

  • IFR

    COMMENT: ECB - rate cut bets persist despite guidance

    Ticker | 07 June 2019

    The inconsistency between the ECB’s rate forward guidance (unchanged rates at least through first half of 2020) and market pricing remains. While market pricing has reduced the odds of a 10bp cut by March 2020 to 70% from 100% prior to yesterday’s meeting, a rate cut is still priced in during H1 2020.

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