IFR SNAPSHOT-Markets closed for Good Friday; recap and outlook

4 min read
John Doran

The week ends with all markets closed for this Good Friday and the start of Passover.

The investment grade primary closed after business on Wednesday, with weekly IG issuance hitting US$21.600bn, pushing monthly issuance to US$69.000bn, according to IFR data.

Year-to-date volume reached US$396.743bn, trailing the US$411.272bn tally for the same period in 2018, according to IFR.

For the week ended April 17, Lipper US Fund Flows reported that investment-grade funds net inflow was US$2.308bn and that high-yield funds net inflow was US$1.101bn.

Emerging market debt funds saw net outflows of US$239.48m this past week, according to Lipper. Around $339.366m flowed out of emerging markets hard currency funds, while EM local currency funds saw net inflows of around US$100.979m.

High-yield issuers sold US$2.6bn of bonds in the primary market this week, according to IFR data.

IFR data shows year-to-date volumes are broadly in line with last year. Issuers have sold US$71.99bn of junk debt so far, compared with US$72.92bn in the same period last year.

Average high yield spreads closed Thursday at 373bp over Treasuries, according to ICE BAML data, 5bp wide of where the market finished last Friday.

Structured finance activity slowed after the US$11.5bn that was issued last week, which was the busiest of the year so far.

Six borrowers in the ABS market tapped investors for US$3.2bn of debt this week, across auto loans, auto rental, consumer loan and container lease ABS.

US$2.55bn was sold in the CMBS market and US$1.72bn of RMBS was sold.

In equities, investment banks printed US$6.6bn across 13 transactions, including eight IPOs that raised US$2.9bn, the busiest week of the year for IPOs by number and second-busiest by volume.

Investors were chasing performance and new issues were delivering.

Zoom Video Communications rocketed to a 72.2% day-one gain to its Nasdaq debut at US$62.00 on volume of 25.7m shares.

Pinterest, arguably was even more impressive.

Goldman Sachs, and others, printed 75m shares late Thursday night at US$19.00 apiece, above US$15–$17 target and giving the image-sharing site a US$1.425bn injection.

Pinterest closed the session at $24.40, minting investors some $440m of profits.

NEXT WEEK OUTLOOK

Investment grade primary supply next week is expected to be largely the same as this week, but with an added day of trading.

Volume in IG is expected to hit the US$20bn area and be driven largely by financial institutions - particularly regional banks and other non-money center organizations, syndicate desks told IFR.

Assessing the year ahead, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report: “We are in the middle of a massive rally in credit after the trouble in 4Q18.”

“We had strong excess demand for IG credit all year,” BAML said. “What changed in April is that on top of that we now also have more positive data readings on the US economy, in addition to green shoots from Europe and China.

“We remain bullish on IG spreads on favorable technicals & macro.”

And BAML noted that: “2019 will look much like 2016 as far as demand goes, with foreigners and bond funds/ETFs once again buying all net supply.”

The structured finance pipeline for next week looks light, with only five deals on the radar so far across ABS, CMBS and RMBS.

In high yield, next week could see around US$2bn-US$4bn coming to the market.

So far just one has been announced - a US$750m seven-year senior secured note from automotive seat manufacturer Adient Global. Lead left Bank of America Merrill Lynch starts a deal roadshow next Monday.

And it will be a big and busy week for earnings, including among many others Boeing, Microsoft, AT&T, T-Mobile US, Verizon Holdings, Amazon.com Inc, Ford Motor, Chevron, Exxon, and the Coca-Company.