Jonathan Rogers graduated from Oxford University in 1986 where he read Politics, Philosophy and Economics. That year he joined Nomura International , attending the company’s graduate trainee programme at Nomura Securities’ headquarters in Tokyo. He worked as an institutional bond salesman for Nomura in London for five years, covering central banks and institutions in Scandinavia. He subsequently worked on the institutional sales desk at Long Term Credit Bank of Japan in London before moving on to the derivatives and structured note desk at First National Bank of Chicago in London. Jonathan joined IFR Asia in 2003 as syndicated loans editor and subsequently became debt capital markets editor in 2005. He is currently IFR Asia’s chief analyst, credit.
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PRECISELY HOW DOES one navigate through the “post-truth” world? Readers of this column are probably familiar with Oxford Dictionaries’ word of the year for 2016, defined by their selection committee as “relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief”.
FINANCIAL COLUMNISTS ARE necessarily involved in prediction, even though forecasting markets is perhaps as reliable as astrology or clairvoyance. For longer time periods, financial market prediction is about as effective as forecasting the weather. But here’s one for you: the infrastructure finance market will be the source of the next global financial crisis. I can’t quite tell you when exactly, but it’s one long-range forecast I’m sure will come true.
FOR BELIEVERS IN the “Trump reflation trade”, last week’s rate rise from the Federal Reserve slotted into the script nicely. Indeed, so did the official view from the Fed that it will have room for perhaps three rate increases next year, based on the “dot plots” of Fed committee members, faster than the perceived pace of tightening before Donald Trump’s election, and certainly of a greater magnitude in absolute rate terms than was the market consensus earlier this year.