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Thursday, 19 October 2017

Jonathan Rogers' s stories

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  • Banking on ASEAN integration

    Banking on ASEAN integration

    All Special Reports | 20 September 2017

    The ASEAN Banking Integration Framework is one layer of the ASEAN Economic Community, an entity modelled on the European single market. The AEC comprises four interrelated ambitions: realising a single market and production base; creating a highly competitive economic region; achieving equitable economic development; and full regional integration into the global economy.

  • As good as it gets

    As good as it gets

    All Special Reports | 15 June 2017

    Indonesia’s fortunes from a credit perspective have brightened recently, with spreads on its offshore curve tightening considerably amid a wave of demand from investors in the Reg S/144A market and, perhaps most tellingly, in the Samurai market. A positive ratings trajectory helps explain the story of the credit’s resurgence.

  • Here to stay

    Here to stay

    All Special Reports | 15 June 2017

    Taiwan has long perplexed as a geopolitical entity. Regarded as a renegade province by China, 110 miles to its north-west, and ripe for repatriation to the mainland in the latter’s view, the country is a potential tinderbox.

  • AIIB invigorates infrastructure lending

    AIIB invigorates infrastructure lending

    All Special Reports | 02 March 2017

    If the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank had not existed, it might have been necessary to invent it. That sounds glib, but there can be no doubt that the AIIB presents a welcome shot in the arm for Asia’s infrastructure sector.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    The risks of a post-truth world

    People & Markets | 20 January 2017

    PRECISELY HOW DOES one navigate through the “post-truth” world? Readers of this column are probably familiar with Oxford Dictionaries’ word of the year for 2016, defined by their selection committee as “relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief”.

  • IFR

    The infrastructure of a bond market crisis

    People & Markets | 13 January 2017

    FINANCIAL COLUMNISTS ARE necessarily involved in prediction, even though forecasting markets is perhaps as reliable as astrology or clairvoyance. For longer time periods, financial market prediction is about as effective as forecasting the weather. But here’s one for you: the infrastructure finance market will be the source of the next global financial crisis. I can’t quite tell you when exactly, but it’s one long-range forecast I’m sure will come true.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Anywhere but Treasuries

    People & Markets | 16 December 2016

    FOR BELIEVERS IN the “Trump reflation trade”, last week’s rate rise from the Federal Reserve slotted into the script nicely. Indeed, so did the official view from the Fed that it will have room for perhaps three rate increases next year, based on the “dot plots” of Fed committee members, faster than the perceived pace of tightening before Donald Trump’s election, and certainly of a greater magnitude in absolute rate terms than was the market consensus earlier this year.

  • Jonathan Rogers new June 2014

    Berau's low-brow offer is pause for thought

    People & Markets | 09 December 2016

    THE ONGOING RESTRUCTURING saga at Indonesian coal producer Berau Coal hit a roadblock last week when a proposed swap of 2015 paper on which the company defaulted last year and on its due 2017s into new debt failed to get inked by creditors.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    An answer to Singapore's default problem

    People & Markets | 02 December 2016

    When most people think of Singapore they imagine efficiency, clean streets, low crime and a lack of corruption. The spectre of debt defaults has not encroached on that image until now, or until a year ago to be precise, when a Singapore dollar bond issued by Indonesian telecoms merchandiser Trikomsel missed a coupon payment.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Here comes the Asian recession

    People & Markets | 11 November 2016

    AND SO THE orange-faced candidate won. I watched the US presidential election unfold last Wednesday with friends in Singapore, flipping channels between CNN, BBC and Fox News, wondering all the way through why the updates on the electoral college tally were so slow. Surely it was too late to impact the polling booths?

  • Jonathan Rogers

    A lesson from the Wild East

    People & Markets | 04 November 2016

    A COLOURFUL CASE of financial shenanigans is unfolding in Hong Kong. Although relatively small in absolute terms, the collapse of a local money lender is notable in that a lot of the cash which has gone missing was stumped up by the city’s investment banking community.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    The good cops take charge

    People & Markets | 28 October 2016

    I went to a sustainability conference last week held in Singapore by BNP Paribas and my first thoughts, after a day which included such highlights as Cherie Blair talking about advancing women’s equality in the corporate world and former world tennis number one Chris Evert about her days as one of the first superstars of women’s sport, were about how much longer such conferences can be convened.

  • Jonathan Rogers new June 2014

    This time it's different

    People & Markets | 21 October 2016

    THE SECONDARY LOAN market in Asia has been expected to boom for a long time. It was a hoped-for venue of rich liquidity and was seen as a handy, indeed necessary, means for banks to tweak their balance sheets.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Is Marmite inflation fungible?

    People & Markets | 14 October 2016

    HSBC HAS JUST published a fascinating piece of research, the crux of which is the forecast that global interest rates will remain low for at least the next five years. I’ve heard of long-range weather forecasts (which are notoriously unreliable, global warming excepted) but the idea of a five-year forecast is entirely new to me.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Revving up the volume on 1MDB

    People & Markets | 07 October 2016

    SOME FRIENDS OF mine from Singapore recently attended the Formula One in Kuala Lumpur. Not being much of a petrol head myself, I have only experienced that noise-fest on one occasion - at the Singapore F1 eight years ago when the city state’s night race made its debut – as the guest of an investment bank.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    China's property bond bubble is back

    People & Markets | 30 September 2016

    HAVING WATCHED VARIOUS bubbles expand in global capital markets since the financial crisis, the recent re-emergence of the China property bubble gives me the most pause.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Friends in advisory places

    People & Markets | 23 September 2016

    IT’S ALL ABOUT infrastructure these days, particularly in Asia, where the annual spend required to plug the region’s gap in everything from power production to roads and airports is estimated to reach US$5.36trn annually by 2025, according to PwC. Small wonder, then, that lots of people are trying to get a piece of the project finance advisory game.

  • A Filipino contradiction

    A Filipino contradiction

    All Special Reports | 15 September 2016

    The Philippines under its recently elected president Rodrigo Duterte displays some uneasy contradictions. Against the backdrop of extra-judicial killing which has delivered more than 3,000 deaths since his inauguration, and a bomb blast last month that prompted him to declare a national state of lawlessness, credit and equity markets seem impervious. Can this last?

  • Jonathan Rogers

    The inevitability of going Green

    People & Markets | 09 September 2016

    LAST WEEK THE G20 produced a communique from its annual meeting, this time held in Hangzhou in China, which for the first time mentioned Green finance as a critical input into the future of the global economy.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Laos returns to its original sin

    People & Markets | 02 September 2016

    EVERYBODY LOVES A frontier market. The multilateral development banks get to fulfil their mission statements by helping create a capital market, often by stepping up to issue a domestic bond. Independent advisers can leverage their local contact book for lucrative commissions and the promise of future business, usually government-linked. And get in early on the banking side and you’re at the core of what may eventually become a fully fledged emerging market.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    A cleaner future for Asia's private banks

    People & Markets | 26 August 2016

    I’m writing this on a Swiss train en route from Zurich to Cologne after a relaxing few days with an old friend who has retired to his home town after decades as a private banker in Asia.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Libor spike is cause for concern

    People & Markets | 12 August 2016

    SOMETHING RATHER ODD is happening in the money markets. Libor is through the roof. It’s supposed to be a temporary spike based on US money market funds avoiding pending regulation, but I wonder.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Singapore swing doesn't change a thing

    People & Markets | 29 July 2016

    THE SINGAPORE BOND market went into a minor swoon last week on news that oilfield service company Swiber Holdings was to go into receivership. A liquidity crisis at the company, which is facing a raft of notices of demand, effectively left its senior management no viable choice but to go into liquidation.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    1MDB: The end is in sight

    People & Markets | 22 July 2016

    A RESOLUTION TO the scandal at Malaysian state investment company 1MDB came a step closer last week thanks to an intervention by the US authorities.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Duterte's first test: Dirty Harry or Dull30?

    People & Markets | 15 July 2016

    Less than a month after Rodrigo Duterte was sworn in as president of the Philippines, the paradoxes are beginning to emerge, as I always imagined they would. That Duterte was to be a stinging contrast to all his predecessors as Philippines president had been promised prior to his landslide anointing in May, and the early signs strongly suggest that will indeed be the case.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Brace yourself for negative Asian bond yields

    People & Markets | 08 July 2016

    Brexit lunacy will help spread negative government bond yields across the globe, says Jonathan Rogers.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Indonesia's coal offers a cautionary tale for creditors

    People & Markets | 24 June 2016

    FORGIVE MY RETURNING to Indonesia just a week after my last column on the topic but it’s worth the deja vu, since a big(ish) restructuring over there is winding its way to the supposed finish line and it shines a light on much else besides.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Indonesia sets standard for slowing SEA

    People & Markets | 17 June 2016

    THERE MUST BE big smiles at the Republic of Indonesia’s debt office. In just seven business days this month, the team there has managed to complete the country’s funding needs for the year: a chunky €3bn seven- and 12-year Reg S/144a deal priced on June 7 while a ¥100bn (US$959m) three and five-year Samurai priced last Wednesday. A job well done.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    An Uber moment for the bond market? Not so fast…

    People & Markets | 03 June 2016

    EVERYONE TALKS ABOUT fintech these days and invariably you hear the line “banking’s about to have its Uber moment”, referring to the point in time when that particular mobile phone application caught on – to the delight of drunken stop-outs everywhere and the chagrin of the taxi driving professional.

  • Setting the Asian sovereign standard

    Setting the Asian sovereign standard

    All Special Reports | 02 June 2016

    Indonesia has won its reputation the hard way, after years of brickbats from bankers and investors critical of its heavy-handed approach to issuance, which involved long drawn-out timelines and what became a signature compromising of price tension in the execution process.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Masters of the universal banking model

    People & Markets | 27 May 2016

    Does the name Alexander Gerschenkron ring a bell? For many readers of this column, I would imagine probably not. Among the Pantheon of famous practitioners of economics – a science that appears more dismal by the week when invoked by hyper-emotional UK politicians – his name is absent. But is he relevant today? Absolutely.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    China's 'rude' attitude to municipal bonds

    People & Markets | 13 May 2016

    THERE WAS A deliciously candid revelation last week into the workings of Britain’s establishment when Queen Elizabeth was caught off-guard complaining that Chinese officials accompanying Xi Jinping and his wife had been “rude” to the British ambassador during their state visit last year. I’m not a monarchist but I have no reason to doubt the veracity of the Queen’s complaint, captured by a television crew’s super-powerful microphone.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Tough talk?

    People & Markets | 06 May 2016

    BY TUESDAY WE should know who will be the new president of the Philippines.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Despair and dismay in Japanese bonds

    People & Markets | 29 April 2016

    DESPAIR REIGNS IN the yen bond market. That was the word used by a market veteran whom I recently visited in Tokyo – and it’s easy to see why.

  • Asia's Green bond bonanza

    Asia's Green bond bonanza

    All Special Reports | 28 April 2016

    According to the Climate Bonds Initiative, Green bond issuance totalled US$42.4bn last year, an increase of almost 16% from the US$36.6bn that printed in 2014. Data from Thomson Reuters show exponential growth in supply from Asia-Pacific, with US$498m issued in 2013, US$538m in 2014, US$2.8bn in 2015 and US$8.4bn so far this year.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    1MDB affair a simple confidence trick

    People & Markets | 15 April 2016

    A FOOL AND his money are soon parted, as the saying goes. Just think of the scam emails from Nigeria, which involve a confidence trick for which only the most gullible moron would fall.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Indonesia's coal creditors on dangerous ground

    People & Markets | 08 April 2016

    Any creditor on the hook to Indonesia’s coal mining industry will not be sleeping easily these days. It appears the country’s nebulous legal framework is set to turn on capital providers in the face of that sector’s brutal – and perhaps terminal – decline.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Junior bankers need a new trick

    People & Markets | 01 April 2016

    All across Asia, older investment banking staff are facing the ravages of “juniorisation”. This involves the unceremonious dismissal of senior bankers, who are expensive and – unless they resort to cosmetic assistance – look less visually appealing and by neat inference less dynamic by the day. 

  • Jonathan Rogers

    US inflation spells danger for Asian currency debt

    People & Markets | 24 March 2016

    How long will the good times continue to roll for Asia’s domestic bond markets? Their resilience in the face of local equity market turbulence has been remarkable, as has been their ability to shake off the first rate increase from the US Federal Reserve in a decade.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Philippines voters flirting with disaster

    People & Markets | 18 March 2016

    A wrong choice at the May 9 presidential elections would undo so much good work, says Jonathan Rogers 

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Negative rates? No problem

    People & Markets | 19 February 2016

    From ZIRP to NIRP in the blink of an eye. Last year, the global markets were on tenterhooks on speculation as to when the US Federal Reserve would discontinue its zero interest rate policy.

  • China muni bonds set for take-off

    China muni bonds set for take-off

    All Special Reports | 19 February 2016

    The buzz around China’s municipal bond market gathered momentum in October 2014, when the financial authorities decided to restrict issuance by local government funding vehicles (LGFVs). That move underscored the long-held mindfulness of the Chinese financial authorities to the potential perils of a rising debt burden at the municipal level; in 1997 Beijing introduced restrictions to limit the contingent liabilities of local governments.

  • IFR

    Malaysian farce is no laughing matter

    People & Markets | 29 January 2016

    ALLOW ME TO refer you to the Oxford English Dictionary’s definition of ‘farce’: “A comic dramatic work using buffoonery and horseplay and typically including crude characterization and ludicrously improbable situations.”

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Taiwan's turn to head into the unknown

    People & Markets | 22 January 2016

    Allow me to insulate this column from the ongoing global market deluge. There are enough pundits providing helpful commentary about the next Global Financial Crisis.  

  • Rogers

    Headline risk adds to Asia's currency conundrum

    People & Markets | 15 January 2016

    Events in Jakarta show Asia is not immune to the kind of tail risks that threaten Western markets, says Jonathan Rogers. 

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Philippine election will make Trump look tame

    People & Markets | 18 December 2015

    Jonathan Rogers on crime-busting mayor Rodrigo Duterte.

  • IFR Asia Credit Analyst Jonathan Rogers

    China's real renminbi test is yet to come

    People & Markets | 04 December 2015

    SO CHINA HAS been granted the ambition it has harboured explicitly for its currency for the best part of five years: to be included in the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights, the basket of “elite” currencies that constitute part of numerous central banks’ foreign exchange reserves. From October 1 next year, the renminbi will stand alongside the dollar, the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen in the synthetic IMF currency.

  • IFR

    Dark pools a ray of light for Asia

    People & Markets | 20 November 2015

    Private trading forums hold part of the answer to the liquidity problems in Asian debt.

  • IFR

    Asia needs a good debt workout

    People & Markets | 13 November 2015

    The growing number of Chinese defaults is stirring interest in Asian debt restructuring.

  • IFR

    Masala move just a flash in the pan

    People & Markets | 06 November 2015

    Talk of global bonds in Asia’s local currencies highlights lack of infrastructure.

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