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Thursday, 19 October 2017

Michael Cartine' s stories

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  • A student shouts beside an Estelada (Catalan separatist flag) during a protest the day after the banned independence referendum in Barcelona, Spain, October 2, 2017.

    Catalan crisis makes for tricky Spanish auctions

    Ticker | 04 October 2017

    Spain is holding bond auctions tomorrow targeting €3.5bn-€4.5bn of a new five-year and tap of an old 12-year, plus €250m-€750m of a seven-year index-linked issue.

  • A student shouts beside an Estelada (Catalan separatist flag) during a protest the day after the banned independence referendum in Barcelona, Spain, October 2, 2017.

    Spain wider after referendum, all eyes on Thursday auction

    Ticker | 02 October 2017

    Spanish government bonds moved slightly following the banned referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain, during which over 800 were injured, according to Catalan officials, as people clashed with riot police.

  • Greece

    More talk about Greece coming to market

    Ticker | 17 July 2017

    One thing which might spice the headlines up a little today or this week is more chatter about Greece possibly coming to market with a new syndicated deal, presumably before Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting.

  • Greece

    Greece reported looking at five-year bond for next week

    Ticker | 14 July 2017

    Political Alpha on Thursday served up notice for the Greek bond market that the sovereign is looking “to tap bond markets imminently”, as Prime Minister Tsipras wants to “capitalise on the recent spate of good news and use the momentum from the de-escalation of the yields following the last Eurogroup decision”.

  • Reuters confirms ECB rethink

    Ticker | 28 June 2017

    Concurrent with other newswires reportedly saying the market overreacted to European Central Bank President Draghi’s comments yesterday, Reuters is headlining a report that the market “overinterpreted” the intent in his speech, which indeed appears to have been more balanced.

  • Sovereign supply drops this week but peripheral syndicated deals eyed

    Ticker | 05 June 2017

    Scheduled sovereign fixed-rate supply is set to drop off dramatically this week, to just €5bn from the hefty €18bn taken down last week. Only Austria, Germany and Ireland are scheduled to come to market, in that order.

  • Irish flag

    Ireland steady ahead of Moody's review

    Ticker | 12 May 2017

    It’s Friday today and that means ratings agencies will be due with their latest updates for their scheduled reviews. Moody’s on Ireland stands out as the big one.

  • Germany's Constitutional Court headquarters

    German Constitutional Court accepts OMT, minor reservations

    Ticker | 21 June 2016

    Germany’s Constitutional Court earlier released its ruling on the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions program earlier and found it does not violate Germany’s Basic Law.

  • The Fitch Ratings building is seen in New York

    Fitch upgrades Ireland to 'A', affirms Austria at 'AA+'

    Capital City | 05 February 2016

    (Reuters) - Fitch raised Ireland’s credit rating a notch to ‘A’ on Friday, taking the unusual step of upgrading a country’s debt in the middle of an election campaign, a move that could potentially hand the government parties a boost.

  • Spain

    Spain may launch 15-year bond in next fortnight - sources

    Capital City | 09 February 2015

    The Kingdom of Spain is considering the issuance of a new 15-year syndicated bond in the next two weeks, according to three market sources.

  • Tanker trucks form a queue

    Emerging markets oil exporters leave US$70bn liquidity hole

    Capital City | 03 November 2014

    Emerging market energy producers could put pressure on a range of capital market instruments including Treasuries this year by draining capital from global markets for the first time in almost two decades, according to BNP Paribas strategists.

  • greece market bonds

    Front-end Greece slides further

    Capital City | 16 October 2014

    Greek bonds have been sliding further as dealers relay “one-way markets” which feature “no bid side” and that are “completely offered only”.

  • SYRIZA

    Greek bonds weak as SYRIZA gains ground in polls

    Capital City | 14 October 2014

    Continued gains for opposition Greek party SYRIZA, the Coalition of the Radical Left, have been spooking investors in the Greek market and has pushed 10-year spreads to Bunds out another 30+ bp on Tradeweb.

  • greece third bailout

    Greek bonds hammered again

    Capital City | 30 September 2014

    Greek bonds are getting slammed again on Tuesday, with 10-year spreads out another 25bp to Bunds on Tradeweb, to +575bp mid-morning in London.

  • Bank of England governor Mark Carney leads the bank's quarterly inflation report news conference at the Bank of England in London.

    BoE vote 8-1 on forward guidance, marginally hawkish

    Capital City | 14 August 2013

    The minutes from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting from July 31/August 1 have come in marginally on the hawkish side with respect to the vote on forward guidance.

  • Berlusconi

    Risk on rally pushes peripherals, relief after Berlusconi verdict

    Capital City | 02 August 2013

    After the conviction of former Prime Minister Berlusconi’s conviction for tax fraud late on Thursday, markets do seem to have found a bit of relief.

  • draghi ecb

    Draghi concludes, markets slide after he misses answering rates question

    Capital City | 01 August 2013

    On the question whether European governments have used the time well which the ECB’s OTM programme has bought, Draghi said “some of them certainly did”. He cautioned that others have not made as much progress, and that progress regarding structural reforms has been much slower going. Overall, however, he said he has been satisfied with the progress already made.

  • Yannis Stournaras

    Greece, Portugal suffer most in eurozone from FOMC fallout

    Capital City | 21 June 2013

    Higher beta peripheral markets are suffering the worst of the post-FOMC fallout, as to be expected. Irish bonds however remain the exception where they are wider, but are also still faring significantly better than the other programme countries.

  • Democratic party (PD) leader Pierluigi Bersani leaves a polling

    BTPs spike further on early exit polls from Italy election

    Capital City | 25 February 2013

    The first exit polls are out with Reuters reporting a Sky poll suggesting Democratic Party leader Pier Luigi Bersani taking 34.5% of the lower house and 37% of the Senate. An RAI poll even gives a slight edge to Bersani and there is already talk about Bersani potentially being able to form a government without assistance from current Prime Minister Mario Monti.

  • Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti

    IFR Comment: BTPs hit on Monti exit news, for now; GGBs solid

    Capital City | 10 December 2012

    BTPs are getting crushed, as to be expected with Prime Minister Monti announcing over the weekend he will resign after next year’s budget gets passed. A broad swath of selling has come in with domestic accounts leaning on the market again and leveraged accounts also selling.

  • Monti in Rome

    BTPs hit by political anxiety after walkout by Berlusconi party

    Capital City | 06 December 2012

    News that former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s PDL party walked out of the Senate before a confidence vote on economic measures today has hit BTPs hard, especially in the front-end.

  • A Greek and an EU flag

    IFR Comment: What to look out for regarding Greek financing

    Capital City | 09 November 2012

    There isn’t much new to say regarding the Greek situation, but a closer look at the November 16 date when Greece will reportedly go bankrupt is definitely warranted.

  • Rajoy in Spanish parliament

    IFR Comment: The outlook for Bonos as Spain less likely to request EU aid this year

    Capital City | 08 November 2012

    It appears to be increasingly less likely that Spain will request official European aid this year and, in turn, benefit from Outright Monetary Transaction buying from the European Central Bank.

  • France

    France announces cuts in business taxes: right direction, wrong application

    Capital City | 06 November 2012

    Headlines are hitting the tapes about pro-growth strategies emanating from France in response to the Gallois report, wherein business taxes will reportedly be cut €20bn over three years, paid for by a combination of €10bn of cuts in spending and €10bn of extra sales tax revenue by tweaking the VAT.

  • German IFO and GDP

    IFR Comment: IFO and EZ PMIs reflect German weakness

    Capital City | 24 October 2012

    Germany’s IFO survey is out, reflecting the weakness seen in the earlier reporting of the German manufacturing PMI, with the headline IFO sagging to 100.0 vs expectations of marginal growth to 101.5 (from 101.4).

  • Rajoy

    IFR Comment: "Will he?/Won't he?" a question of when, not if, for Rajoy

    Capital City | 17 September 2012

    Ostensibly, part of the retreat in peripheral markets this morning owes to continued or even growing uncertainty over the “will he?/won’t he?” question regarding whether – and when – Spain will formally request financial assistance from Europe.

  • Mario Draghi

    ECB stepping into fiscal territory suggests big political challenges

    Capital City | 05 September 2012

    There were more media reports of what ECB President Mario Draghi’s plan lays out and what the ECB may or may not subsequently decide. Draghi declared the plan will target an unlimited amount of bond purchases, albeit to be sterilised. This was largely as expected although it does – critically – preclude more limited options which would have been more disappointing to riskier assets.

  • Mario Draghi

    ECB preview

    Capital City | 04 September 2012

    Expectations have understandably grown exponentially regarding what the ECB may announce this Thursday, especially after President Mario Draghi promised to do “whatever it takes” to bolster the euro and specifically mentioned the possibility of lifting government bonds in the “money markets” sector. Certainly this leaves plenty of latitude for movement, but we will try and distill our and market expectations as below.

  • Eurozone bond buying vs yields

    IFR Comment: ECB preview - LT LTROs interesting, but unlikely

    Capital City | 02 August 2012

    Here’s the IFR summary of what to expect (or not) from the ECB meeting today:

  • Merkel with Obama

    IFR Comment: Periphs tighten on EFSF/ESM bond buying talk, Street squeeze

    Capital City | 20 June 2012

    Peripheral markets have zoomed tighter on the back of the Guardian/Telegraph stories about Germany potentially allowing the EFSF/ESM funds to plow their €750bn into buying bonds of weaker euro markets.

  • Spanish flag

    Delay to detailed audit of Spanish banks; letras bill results

    Capital City | 19 June 2012

    Aside from the peripherals selling by international real money accounts, disappointment has also been expressed over the Bank of Spain announcing it will delay the results of the audit of the Spanish banking system.

  • Hollande on May 1

    Analysis: Big event risk looms later in week

    Capital City | 01 May 2012

    Euro markets may have been closed today but that does not mean the day has been entirely bereft of noteworthy events. Looking forward, we have election Sunday, where former Greek finance minister and current head of PASOK Evangelos Venizelos cautioned in today’s Guardian that “The Greek people will have to give a clear answer as to whether it wants [to follow] a pro-European course, which is safe and responsible, or something else”.

  • Spanish bond trader

    IFR Comment: Growing localisation of euro markets as crisis wears on

    Capital City | 13 April 2012

    Given the renewed damage in Bonos following the Spanish banks’ borrowing data from the ECB, the relative strength of front-end BTPs stands out even more starkly. Consider, for instance, that two-year Bonos are 14 bps wider to Schatz on Tradeweb, while two-year BTPs traded tighter through much of the morning (though they are starting to come under pressure now).

  • EFSF

    EFSF eyes three bond issues for next week - source

    Capital City | 13 March 2012

    Europe’s rescue vehicle European Financial Stability Fund is contemplating three debt issues next week, including a short-term bill, a five-year bond and a 25–30 year bond, a source close to the borrower said on Tuesday.

  • ISDA 200

    IFR Comment: ISDA rules no CDS event

    Derivatives | 01 March 2012

    ISDA has declared that CDS will not be triggered by the Greek PSI restructuring. Details are still coming out, but this looks exactly as IFR wrote earlier this morning, wherein the original question submitted on February 28 referenced only the imposition of Collective Action Clauses and their relation to the restructuring, and whether they would trigger CDS payments…

  • Mario Draghi

    Draghi confirms Greece deal; peripherals/high beta trade well on news

    Capital City | 09 February 2012

    ECB President Mario Draghi confirms that an agreement has been reached by Greece and Eurogroup meeting will discuss further steps.

  • Greece metro/Reuters

    European governments: Examining Greece escrow proposal and PSI negotiations

    Capital City | 07 February 2012

    The suggestion by Germany and France on Monday to create an escrow account for Greek interest payments is important as it effectively allows the EU and the IMF to cut the financial tap to Greece but without necessarily forcing disruption into broader financial markets.

  • French and European flags are displayed during a news conference at the Hotel Matignon in Paris

    IFR Comment: Big fill on 10/21s makes for rough OAT auction, others go well enough

    Ticker | 05 January 2012

    The easiest thing to say about this morning’s OAT taps is this is a lot of bonds for the market to take down, especially with the jumbo €4bn awarded on the 10/21s. But other than the big fill on this award, the other legs of the auctions have gone well enough. €7.963bn were allotted across all four lines, close to the top end of the €7bn–8bn range.

  • EFSF

    IFR Comment: EFSF called "structurally unstable" -- Where's the bid?

    Bonds | 12 December 2011

    Market participants are increasingly looking at the EFSF programme as a lemon they don’t want to go near and are reporting many accounts, including central banks, have not been approved for the name. To some extent this is understandable given the time it takes for paper work to go through (EFSF may itself not be a new name, but the bill programme is). Then again, the name has been around from the summer of 2010, with its funding programme formally starting with its first bond sold at the start of this

  • Reports ECB eyes more accommodation

    Ticker | 30 November 2011

    The easier monetary policy stance from China is certainly the main push behind the current rally but just prior to these headlines the European Central Bank provided some of its own where newswires cited unnamed sources suggesting an increase in bond purchases, further cuts in interest rates and even taking the Refi Rate below 1.00% are all possible.

  • Euro ECB

    IFR Comment: Separate ECB interest rates would invite counter-productive capital flows

    Ticker | 16 November 2011

    Further thought about a “separate interest rate band” proposal from the European Central Bank suggests it would indeed be impractical.Consider that lower rates for weaker economies against a higher rate (presumably the 1.25% Refi Rate) for stronger economies would invite counter-productive capital flows or even capital flight.

  • Athens euro window

    IFR Comment: Has the euro really been that positive for Europe?

    Ticker | 08 November 2011

    Market participants in a broader sense are finally s

  • Euro ECB

    IFR Comment: EFSF/Greece headlines, plans taking shape; No panacea

    Ticker | 13 October 2011

    More headlines and stories are pouring out giving more details regarding both the restructuring of Greek debt and the plans for “leveraging” the EFSF, making it appear that concrete decisions are finally starting to take shape. Potentially this will bring more “risk-on” trading, but IFR again cautions the solutions being discussed do not at all address the underlying problems with the Euro’s faulty architecture.

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