I’M WRITING THIS column from Provence, where spring appears to have arrived and the skies of Southern France are sporting their unique shade of cerulean blue.
All that one expects of France is here at the home in the Provencal “paysage”: wonderful food and wine, and an active debate about the state of the nation.
And the latter contains the single, definitively sour note that I’ve encountered after four days in France. All is not well in the Republic. Indeed, there is a sense of crisis, of panic. The consensus at the dinner table is that the far right Front National and its charismatic leader Marine Le Pen will capture this mood at the 2017 presidential election – and with it the Elysee palace.
It’s possible that the election may be held earlier should there be “exceptional circumstances”, and one imagines that if the situation deteriorates further from its current parlous state such circumstances will be declared and an early election will occur.
France is awash with anti-European Union sentiment, and there is a growing desire to ditch a project where the country had once been the beating heart. All France’s woes – its near 11% unemployment rate, youth unemployment of 25%, tired manufacturing industry – together with the consequent accompanying urban decay and its burgeoning feral underclass – are increasingly being blamed on its membership of the EU.
Le Pen’s slick manifesto, which seeks to curb immigration and EU powers, to whack globalisation on the head with the help of protectionism and to restore the “gloire” of the French nation state, has struck a chord. As has her pledge to withdraw France from the euro should she win the presidency.
The FN gains in popularity with each passing day, while beleaguered president Francois Hollande sinks to the lowest rating ever achieved by France’s head of state.
I CONTRAST THIS state of affairs with Asia and wonder about the differences and similarities. The great difference is that the country of the 1789 revolution has refused to ditch the principles which underpin its clunking state apparatus. France has an inherent distrust of free markets and the assault they bring on the entrenched revolutionary ideals of liberty, equality and fraternity.
Contrast this with Asia, and with the forces that would see its Tiger economies enjoy double-digit GDP growth for the best part of 30 years. While France was busy nationalising important companies, cheap labour with little or no employee protection was key to Asia’s torrid growth – as was lax regulation and undervalued currencies.
Again, contrast this with France, where the book of employment rules and regulations weighs two kilos and runs to 3,000 pages. French employers are petrified of having more than 50 in their workforce because at that number a ream of onerous regulations kicks in.
The system is sclerotic and anachronistic but reforms are vigorously opposed by France’s coddled workers. Those lucky enough to have a job enjoy the most generous benefits in the world. It’s not just the 35-hour work week, but massive payouts are enjoyed by the redundant for up to two years after losing their jobs. A national joke is of people engineering their own redundancy in order to enjoy a two-year paid holiday thanks to government largesse.
As I sit enjoying the spring sunshine and a glass of the excellent local rose, France’s crisis mode is imperceptible
THE HOLLANDE GOVERNMENT came in on the promise of taxing the rich and continuing to offer employees protection from the forces of globalisation that have transformed Asia into an economic powerhouse in less than a generation. Unfortunately for Monsieur Hollande, the numbers just didn’t add up, and the administration has been forced into a massive U-turn in the face of slumping growth. Now the aim is reform centred on reducing France’s massive government spending, which at an eye-popping 57% of GDP is the highest in the developed world.
Ruling politicians in Asia probably laugh when they look at the contortions the French authorities must go through thanks to an entrenched mindset in the population.
The French are profoundly suspicious of globalisation and expect government coddling from the cradle to the grave. Deep cuts are required to reduce that heady spending-to-GDP number but are certain to lead to Greek-style mass protest with any austerity plan, however necessary, to be blamed squarely on France’s membership of the EU.
As I sit enjoying the spring sunshine and a glass of the excellent local rose, France’s crisis mode is imperceptible. And when I return to Singapore, France is going to seem a long way away and just a pleasant memory.
However, a Marine Le Pen victory would lead to France withdrawing from the euro, if she keeps to her pledges. The global economic turmoil that would unleash doesn’t bear thinking about. Asia’s leaders might feel smug as they watch France’s contortions. But they should cast a wary eye on the French presidency. Its incumbency has the potential to become Lehman part 2. Vive la France!
