Like all covered bonds, the German Pfandbrief market has faced tough competition from a relatively new kid on the block: state guaranteed bank bonds. This, coupled with continued aversion to bank risk in general, prompted a serious decline in jumbo covered bond issuance. But, dig a little deeper and figures show that this jurisdiction has actually maintained a stable source of refinancing for its banks. Rachelle Horn reports.
With a total outstanding volume of some €800bn – roughly one fifth of the entire German bond market – the importance of Pfandbriefe, Germany’s highly prized covered bond market, must not be underestimated. But few asset classes have come out unscathed from the crisis, and despite being widely regarded as the strongest of all covered bonds, Pfandbriefe have been no exception.
In the first quarter of this year, only €3.25bn of jumbo Pfandbriefe (excluding taps) were publicly issued in the market – a staggering 62% less than the same period of 2008. Post-Lehman brothers risk aversion to most bank related debt, and the dramatic rescue of Hypo Real Estate - Germany's second largest issuer of Pfandbriefe - accounts for some of this decline. But it was the newly created government guaranteed bank bonds that stuck the final nail in the coffin.
While jumbo Pfandbrief volumes have been on the decline, issuance of government guaranteed bank debt has soared. During the first three months of 2009, such issuance amounted to €21bn in Germany, providing stiff competition for investors' attention. Of the three jumbo German covered bonds that were placed in Q1 this year; all were in a five-year maturity.
Demand prior to this had been concentrated in the short-end of the Pfandbrief curve. Since the onset of the GGB market, this part of the curve has suffered an erosion of demand.
Despite the impact on the Pfandbrief asset class, in mid-February Germany's federal cabinet agreed on a new local law that would extend the Financial Market Stabilisation Act. As part of the move it granted an extension of the maximum maturity for government guaranteed bank bonds to up to five years, putting further pressure on jumbo Pfandbriefe.
The Government’s motives are as clear as they are credible: to align the framework conditions in Germany with those in effect across Europe and prevent distortions of competition. The draft law extends the maximum guarantee term from the current 36 months to 60 months, thus following the EU commission's policy regarding state aid, which permits a term of between three and five years for one third of guarantees.
Yet the move flies in the face of a very clear warning from the Association of German Pfandbriefbanks (vdp) that it will further increase competition. "The issuers accept the inevitable distortions that government-guaranteed unsecured bank bonds create in the capital market," said Henning Rasche, vdp president. "But a widening of the scope of such guarantees would result in an unfair disadvantage for Pfandbrief sales."
Covered bond analysts at BayernLB have supported this argument. Under the new provision, "not only ailing banks but also ‘healthy banks’, for whom Pfandbriefe are actually an important funding tool, would shift over to the new asset class," they said.
On the other hand, Pfandbriefe could benefit from higher returns compared to state-guaranteed bonds, and a steep yield curve will encourage investors to move out of safe havens and into more risky investments like spread products. "We can also expect to see a shift to medium and longer maturities in the medium term," the analysts said. Banks cannot survive forever on short dated funding and Pfandbriefe may well provide the opportunity for banks to lengthen their duration.
A recent steeping of the curve, but more importantly the back-stop provided by the ECB in its announcement that it plans to purchase up to €60bn of covered bonds, has encouraged a revival of public jumbo issuance. This has been particularly evident in the Pfandbrief market.
Since the announcement from the ECB in early May, five jumbo Pfandbrief deals have been launched to a total value of €6bn. That represents more than the total jumbo issuance of the entire first quarter.
Private placements prevail
The German Pfandbrief banks have four Pfandbrief types at their disposal: mortgage Pfandbrief, used for the funding of property loans and secured by real estate; public Pfandbriefe, covered by lending's to the federal government and to regional municipal authorities; ship Pfandbriefe; and the newly introduced aircraft Pfandbrief.
While the headlines have focused on the dramatic decline of the jumbo market, this is actually just one piece of a very large funding puzzle. Of the different Pfandbrief types, the market is made up of registered Pfandbriefe (issued in private placement format), traditional bearer Pfandbriefe and Jumbo bearer Pfandbriefe. Each segment accounts for about one third of outstanding volumes.
Registered and bearer Pfandbriefe differ in regard to their transferability. The bearer Pfandbrief may be transferred at any time by way of a simple purchase transaction. Registered Pfandbrief has to be assigned to the new buyer and the issuer notified accordingly. For this reason, registered Pfandbriefe are bought primarily by long term-oriented institutional investors such as insurance companies and pension funds, which keep the Pfandbriefe in their portfolio until maturity.
Bearer Pfandbriefe, on the other hand, particularly the big-volume Jumbo Pfandbriefe with a minimum issuance volume of €1bn, was created to provide liquidity. According to Christoph Anhamm, head of covered bond development at RBS, the indication of the total volume of Pfandbrief issuance seen in January 2009 was actually €7.3bn, a fourth drop in a row from €13.8bn in September 2008, compared to around €12.6bn in January 2008. Though clearly down, what these figures suggest there is activity away from the so-called benchmark. This asset class is obviously still providing a valuable source of financing for Germany's banks.
"What we hear from some of the typical covered bond investors, such as the insurance companies, is that there has been a shift in focus from the jumbo market into the registered Pfandbrief market," said Anhamm. "If they do not get liquidity from the jumbo covered bond market then they will look to take advantage of some of the benefits of the registered market, such as not having to mark to market."
“Demand for German Pfandbriefe is currently developing satisfactorily, despite the wave of government-guaranteed bank bond issues," said Rasche. "Our member institutions expect the positive trend of recent weeks to endure during the course of the year – provided the banking industry is stabilised further and investor confidence continues to strengthen.”
The private placement market also offers a cost advantage of around 20bp to 30bp compared to funding through jumbo Pfandbriefe. Pre-crisis this level would have been closer to 5bp or even 3bp.
Pfandbriefe’s funding potential was illustrated in March when Deutsche Bank announced it will utilise the asset class for the first time. As a flagship lender with a strong Double A rating, Deutsche Bank's planned entry into this market is a significant endorsement for the flagging product.
Though some banks in Germany are using both Pfandbriefe and government guaranteed bonds for financing, Deutsche Bank has vowed not to turn to Berlin for help. A spokesman at the institution told IFR that in the current market situation it sees Pfandbriefe as a cost-effective extension of its financing base.
"We are looking for a licence to issue Pfandbriefe and are in contact with the German regulator, BaFin," said the spokesman. The bank has not established a programme before because the cost-advantage of Pfandbriefe was less significant for a bank such as Deutsche in previous years, he added: this has now changed.
Though the jumbo segment struggled for the most part of this year, the private placement market is still very active and the establishment of a new Pfandbrief programme will certainly add another string to Deutsche's bow. But while private placements are providing a stable source of financing for the banks, volumes are often less predictable. They also lack other advantages that come with issuing in jumbo format, not least the opportunity to access international investors.