Fitch cuts Indonesia's rating outlook
Fitch has revised the outlook for Indonesia to negative from stable, while keeping the country's rating at BBB.
The rating agency said on Wednesday the revision reflects "increasing policy uncertainty and erosion of Indonesia's policy mix consistency and credibility". Fitch has forecast a fiscal deficit of 2.9% of GDP for 2026, above the country's 2.7% target, but in line with 2025 and very close to the legally allowed 3% limit.
This follows a similar move by Moody's in February to revise Indonesia's sovereign rating outlook to negative on "reduced predictability, which risks undermining policy effectiveness and points to weakening governance".
Indonesia's government has come under increased scrutiny following the election of president Prabowo Subianto in 2024 and his subsequent move to consolidate power. In August 2025, civil unrest broke out across the country in protest against perks for lawmakers. Finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati was among those replaced in a cabinet reshuffle in September.
More recently, the president's nephew was sworn in as deputy governor of the central bank in February.
Still, Indonesia has managed to make multiple successful outings in the bond market in 2026. In February, the country sold a Rmb9.25bn (US$1.3bn) triple-tranche Dim Sum and a €2.7bn (US$3.2bn) triple-tranche euro bond in its biggest combined offering in offshore markets. That followed a US$2.7bn three-tranche bond in January.