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Saudi Aramco priced the world’s largest IPO (not taking inflation into account) on Thursday at the top of the SR30-SR32 price range for a SR96bn (US$25.6bn) deal size, albeit almost exclusively to a local audience. Total demand was US$119bn, of which US$12bn came from individual investors. Full exercise of the 15% greenshoe is expected by bankers working on the deal, which would push proceeds up to US$29.4bn. On an inflation-adjusted basis that would still put it behind Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's US$22bn IPO in 2006. A valuation of US$1.7trn represents a yield of 4.4%, below the expected sweet spot for international money of 5%. Trading is due to begin on December 11. Bankers at the international global coordinators said there had been decent interest from well-known international investors that had done a lot of work in the run-up to the deal. They said internationals represent less than 10% of the total deal size - but "that is still a very large sum of money", said one of the bankers. A book of around 2,000 lines included institutions, high-net-worth individuals and government entities. While there was strong demand, a larger deal was apparently not considered, though there was discussion about changing the institutional to retail split. Institutions were sold 1% of the company and retail 0.5%. The fee for the base deal has been set at 25bp, with the incentive fee still up for grabs and "meaningful in terms of the overall amount", according to a second banker involved. That represents a base deal fee pool of US$64m, increasing to US$73.5m on full exercise of the greenshoe. Before the deal shifted to being regionally marketed only, the base fee was agreed at 35bp with an incentive of at least 55bp. GETTING THE CREDIT Now that the deal has priced there is the tricky question of how it will be treated by league-table providers, who are arguably in a lose-lose situation when it comes to their credibility. The challenge is choosing between crediting banks that did little work (or even none at all) on the final stages of the IPO or massively skewing the EMEA league table for the whole year by allocating the credit to a smaller group of active banks on what was a (very large) local market listing. The original syndicate of 25 had banks split across three levels of responsibility, with global coordinators overseeing the transaction and below them bookrunners split between international and domestic portions of the trade. At the start of bookbuilding, the planned international roadshow was cancelled as foreign investors were not willing to match the valuation locals would pay. Banks were also told they could not make outgoing calls to foreign investors, rendering many entirely redundant having been brought in for their focus on a specific country - such as Japan or Canada. Allocating those banks an equal share of the credit for the IPO as the Saudi banks (which were able to place stock thanks to their local licences) would mean the league table is minimally impacted as most banks were on the deal - but it would also be unfair. Alternatively the credit could be shared by the global coordinators and the local banks – which reduces the syndicate to 14 banks with credit of US$1.8bn each. But again, is that really the fairest distribution when HSBC is the only international bank to feature on the list of receiving entities (through its Saudi British Bank subsidiary)? Splitting the credit between the two Saudi global coordinators and five domestic bookrunners would clearly capture the distribution effort more accurately than any other option. Doing that would completely transform the league table for EMEA equity issuance, handing each bank US$4.2bn of credit, assuming full exercise of the greenshoe, enough to overtake the seventh-placed bank in the league table in one shot. League-table providers will wait until they receive full documentation before making a final decision. As for what the bi

EQY

5 min read

Emerging Markets

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec - 13 Dec

Robert Venes, Owen Wild

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec 2019 - 13 Dec 2019

Brown companies step up for sustainability loans

Five companies from Europe’s heavy industrial sector have signed a combined €7.5bn of sustainability-linked loans in recent days, but the deals have raised difficult questions about whether the targets being set are ambitious enough. French industrial gas manufacturer Air Liquide, Spanish cement group Cementos Molins and three German companies - car parts maker Continental, chemicals group Lanxess and engineering group Norma - have all tapped the loan market for sustainability-linked loans. While the extension of sustainable financing to carbon-intensive companies is controversial, many see it as essential to cutting emissions and meeting the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. "Transactions in high carbon-intense sectors should be considered transition deals," said Trevor Allen, a sustainability research analyst at BNP Paribas. "We want brown companies to acknowledge that they’ve got to shift to a low-carbon strategy." A handful of bonds linked to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals have printed this year (most notably from Italian power company Enel), but most sustainability-linked financing has been done in the private loan market, which means that the KPIs have been buried and not clearly defined or subject to public scrutiny. Many of the KPIs on early sustainability-linked loans are viewed as ineffective and even unfit for purpose. Banks are gaining expertise as the market evolves and matures, but setting KPIs is still hampered by a lack of standardisation around the approaches and data used. “The KPIs we see in the market today are not as impactful as they could be, but they are meaningful because we’re at the beginning of the journey of making a sophisticated model to price sustainability and therefore assets,” Allen said. Banks subsidise sustainability-linked loans by giving companies discounts for hitting targets. AMBITION REWARDED? Continental last week acknowledged that current KPIs/benchmarks vary greatly. It said that it is committed to becoming more sustainable - and that the KPIs on its loan reflected that - but drew a contrast with other sustainable loans that do nothing more than maintain the status quo. The car parts maker has committed to sourcing more renewable electricity, increasing the proportion of women in management positions, reducing the accident and sickness rate among its employees, and increasing the proportion of recycled waste. Lanxess, meanwhile, committed to one environmental KPI and one social KPI - to increase the proportion of women in its top three management levels. It currently has no women on its board. MATERIAL TARGETS ESG specialists insist that green structuring agents are getting more sophisticated in setting targets that are material to companies’ business and strategy, and are increasingly raising the bar for unambitious companies. "It is the responsibility of the structuring adviser to make sure that this is not too easy a task," said Orith Azoulay, global head of green and sustainable finance at Natixis. "Banks are lowering the margin and there's a price for it - and that price is ambition." EASILY MEASURED The most common and easily measured KPI in the ESG world centres around CO2 emissions, which can be verified by the Greenhouse Gas Protocol and organisations such as CDP, the carbon disclosure project. But even here the range of strategies relating to CO2 measurement highlights differences in approach. Air Liquide has a KPI to reduce carbon intensity, calculated as direct and indirect kilogram-equivalent CO2 emissions. Cementos Molins has also committed to reducing CO2 emissions, but already uses the reduction of CO2 emissions per tonne of cement to determine its managers' pay. Lanxess has committed to reducing its Scope 1 emissions, which are all direct emissions that are under its control. Lanxess has set its own CO2 reduction targets, which will be verified by an independent auditor. Science-based target-setting is seen as critical to ma

LOA

4 min read

EMEA

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec - 13 Dec

Tessa Walsh

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec 2019 - 13 Dec 2019

Twitter draws followers for high-yield debut

Twitter made an impressive entrance to the high-yield market on Thursday, with heavy investor demand helping the firm print one of the lowest coupons seen this year. The Twitter debut, a US$700m eight-year non-call for life senior unsecured bond, was different from other tech sector issuers that have brought high-yield bonds in recent years such as Netflix, Tesla or WeWork, which have struggled to generate free cashflow. Twitter, on the other hand, is sitting on around US$5.8bn of cash, has low leverage of 1.5 times Ebitda and is expected to generate around US$750m–$1bn in free cashflow over the next 12–18 months. It also came with BB+/Ba2 ratings from Moody's and S&P – among the top rungs of the high-yield spectrum. This all provided strong support for bookrunners JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Wells Fargo to bring pricing from initial thoughts of 4.50% to price talk of the 4.00% area, before revising talk again and pricing at 3.875%, in line with the tightest Double B coupons seen this year. The deal was also increased in size from an initial US$600m. A banker close to the deal said books reached US$6bn–$7bn. "Investors clearly have comfort with Twitter's future standing not only as a Double B name but as a potential upgrade candidate in the future," said Bob Boyd, a portfolio manager at Pacific Asset Management. Not surprisingly, this was seen as very tight pricing for the rating. "While the longer-term secular trends have been favourable, we think the bonds are being priced to perfection," said CreditSights. LONG-TERM CONCERNS? The company's strong balance sheet sets it apart from tech sector junk issuers, but in some ways the deal carried similar uncertainties in terms of how the young and fast-growing social media sector shakes out. "There are some longer-term issues we don't think are being compensated for," said one high-yield investor. "Twitter is popular now, but these things come and go in phases – are they sustainable in the long term?" she said. "If there's a Democratic president like Elizabeth Warren, what does she do with this space? Any legislation on data security could be an issue for them." These are similar worries to investing in trailblazing companies in any kind of new sector, said Boyd. "We view tech as a difficult sector to invest in just because of how quickly things can change," Boyd said. "That certainly applies to Twitter." DEVELOPING ACCESS The deal was seen as a way for Twitter to test the waters of the corporate bond market, having previously only issued convertible bonds, a popular funding tool for fast-growing new companies. The company said it intended to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes including potential acquisitions or strategic transactions, although it said no agreements were currently in place with regard to those kind of deals. But given the company's large cash holdings, it was unclear to some why it needed to issue debt. "They didn't have a good reason for issuing," said the high-yield investor. She added that on an investor call the company had suggested this was a natural evolution of its balance sheet, and that Twitter wanted to be prepared in case it needed capital. "The general view is a company as profitable as they are ought to have some permanent capital in their structure and this is a good window to raise it," said the banker close to the deal. "Apple doesn't need debt and they have a lot too."

BON

4 min read

Americas

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec - 13 Dec

David Bell

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec 2019 - 13 Dec 2019

Twitter draws followers for high-yield debut

BON

4 min read

Americas

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec - 13 Dec

David Bell

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec 2019 - 13 Dec 2019

XP seeks US$1.8bn to fuel expansion

Brazilian online brokerage XP Investimentos' Nasdaq IPO will raise up to US$1.8bn this week to both fund growth and allow its backers to cash out. Durable Capital Partners, the investment firm founded earlier this year by former star T Rowe Price portfolio manager Henry Ellenbogen, is lined up to take 10% of the 72.5m shares being sold, of which 30m come from shareholders. Extensive pre-marketing means joint global coordinators Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are conducting just seven days of marketing, entirely in the US, ahead of pricing after the market close on Tuesday. "We had conducted extensive testing of the waters, both in Brazil and internationally, back in early September," one banker involved said. "The investor feedback we received was very positive." The ability to complete the roadshow in seven days was part of the appeal to XP of a US listing, avoiding the obligatory 14 days required in Brazil. The anchor order from Durable came out of more recent discussions, but is not without precedent. T Rowe made a similar investment in Brazilian financial payments provider StoneCo's US$1.4bn Nasdaq IPO in October 2018, when Ellenbogen ran its New Horizons fund. NOT CHEAP The question with XP was always going to centre on valuation, and it is certainly not cheap, at least on the surface. The US$22–$25 per share range values XP at US$12.1bn–$13.8bn. That equates to a high-20s/low-30s multiple of 2021 earnings, based on estimates of the underwriting banks. StoneCo, a Brazilian payments processor, now trades at 32 times 2021 earnings and fetched a similar 29 times forward multiple on its IPO. Square and Adyen, European and US payments processors respectively, both trade at more than 50 times consensus earnings for 2021, according to Refinitiv data. BLISTERING PACE Founded in 2001 as an independent brokerage, XP is growing at a blistering pace as it expands across financial services. In the nine months ended September 30, XP generated net earnings of R$699m (US$168m) on revenue of R$3.7bn, nearly double the R$352m of earnings on R$2.26bn in the comparable period in 2018. XP's earnings growth is expected to moderate to 40%–45% annually over the next several years. XP, like other LatAm financials, is seeking to become a one-stop shop for financial services. In addition to 1.5m retail clients, the company now has more than 400 institutional and corporate clients, half of which are located outside Brazil. The company's product suite encompasses traditional retail brokerage, wealth management and corporate treasury services across equities and fixed income. It offers mutual and hedge funds, and passive investments, as well as structured products such as life insurance and REITs. The IPO proceeds will be used to fund further expansion in digital banking, payments and insurance, as well as provide working capital to support future growth. Reuters reported last month that XP had hired former Actis partner Chu Kong to lead its private equity investment strategy. SECONDARY CONSIDERATIONS One potential endorsement, and overhang, is Itau Unibanco's current 49.9% stake in XP purchased in 2017, shortly after XP had cancelled plans for an IPO on Brazil's Bovespa. Itau, the country's largest bank by assets, stands to take a nearly US$6bn mark on its holding, having originally invested US$2bn. Itau represents both potential opportunity and risk. It is prohibited from taking majority control, under a ruling by the central bank, but also holds an option to purchase additional shares in 2022 at an already agreed valuation. It is a foregone conclusion that Itau would exercise that right, if allowed. XP Controle, an entity affiliated with management and other insiders, is seeking to sell 19.1m of the 30m secondary shares in the IPO, reducing its stake to 23.1%. However, the rest of its shares are super-voting Class Bs, so XP Controle will retain 56.2% of votes. The ability to retain a dual-sha

EQY

5 min read

Americas, Emerging Markets

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec - 13 Dec

Stephen Lacey

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec 2019 - 13 Dec 2019

Bank capital optimism lifted by UniCredit

Eurozone banks are set to issue an extra €45bn of Additional Tier 1 and Tier 2 debt as European authorities decide that such debt instruments can replace common equity in banks' capital stacks. The rare positive news on capital came from the interpretation of capital guidance from UniCredit in its strategy update last week. It follows years of rising capital requirements, which have depressed profitability levels. Analysts said the Italian bank's guidance had significant implications across eurozone banks, including Deutsche Bank, Santander and BNP Paribas. "There is good news. The good news is coming from the CRD V," UniCredit CEO Jean Pierre Mustier told analysts, referring to the EU's fifth capital requirements directive. Mustier said UniCredit will be allowed to cover up to 44% of its so-called Pillar 2 requirement with AT1 and Tier 2 instruments, rather than common equity Tier 1 capital. That will reduce UniCredit's CET1 requirement by about €3bn, or 80bp, which will be filled by AT1 and Tier 2. Banks' capital requirements include basic capital, buffers and Pillar 2, and vary according to their risk profile. There are inconsistencies in how banks have to meet their requirements, however. Eurozone countries require banks to meet Pillar 2 requirements with CET1, but other countries, including the UK, allow banks to meet it with some AT1 or Tier 2 capital. Jerome Legras, head of research at asset manager Axiom Alternative Investments in Paris, said the UniCredit announcement points to a significant shift and marks a big policy change by the ECB. "This is the first time a bank - and a large one - has explicitly said that they expect future Pillar 2 requirements to be a mix of CET1, AT1 and Tier 2," Legras said. "I can't imagine UniCredit saying such a thing in a widely expected business plan without having some kind of informal clearance or guidance from the ECB." "MATERIALLY POSITIVE" The shift follows the arrival at the start of this year of Andrea Enria as head of the ECB's Single Supervisory Mechanism. Analysts said the SSM had in the past been against allowing anything other than CET1 to meet Pillar 2 requirements. But they said Enria appears keen to harmonise the rules. The capital guidance affects calculations of banks' maximum distributable amounts, or how much capital they can pay out. "While the CRD V text is not new, we see this interpretation ... leading to a lower CET1 MDA requirement as materially positive for banks’ capital debate," said JP Morgan analyst Kian Abouhossein. €3BN TO FILL UniCredit said it is assuming the new requirements to be implemented in 2023, but said that is a conservative assumption. "It is likely it will be earlier," Mustier said. UniCredit estimated it will issue €1.25bn more AT1 to meet its requirements and €1.75bn more Tier 2. "This is very feasible," said Mirko Bianchi, UniCredit's finance director. "If it gets implemented, let's say theoretically in 2021, we would be able to anticipate an AT1 transaction in 2020," he told analysts. Abouhossein said he expects Pillar 2 requirements for eurozone banks to be met with 56.25% from CET1, 18.75% from AT1 and 25% Tier 2 instruments - in line with UK and some Nordic banks. "We assume additional issuance of €19bn AT1 and €26bn Tier 2 to fill the [Pillar 2] bucket," Abouhossein said in a note, referring to the needs across eurozone banks. Axiom's Legras said the 80bp impact on UniCredit's CET1 requirement is likely to be near the average for eurozone banks. It might be slightly less for larger banks - perhaps nearer 60bp - and slightly more for smaller banks, he said. That would be welcome for banks that have struggled to improve returns for the past decade. The EU's banking watchdog said last month that return on equity for the continent's biggest 131 banks averaged 7% in the year to the end of June, down from 7.2% a year earlier. That showed returns for many banks remains below their cost of equity, estimated at 8%-10%. The watchdog warned th

BON ECON P&M

4 min read

EMEA

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec - 13 Dec

Steve Slater

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec 2019 - 13 Dec 2019

XP seeks US$1.8bn to fuel expansion

EQY

5 min read

Americas, Emerging Markets

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec - 13 Dec

Stephen Lacey

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec 2019 - 13 Dec 2019

Sisal Pay wraps up merger with debut high-yield bond

Newly created Italian payments company Sisal Pay landed its debut high-yield bond on Friday. It approached investors with a €530m seven-year non-call one senior secured floater via global coordinators UBS (B&D) and Banca IMI. Initial price talk was Euribor plus 425bp-450bp, which was later revised to 400bp area. The bond landed at 387.5bp over. Sisal Pay is a new business formed in July from a combination of Sisal Group's payments business and Banca 5 - an Intesa Sanpaolo-owned bank that provides financial services in tobacconists. The issuer undertook a four-day roadshow that began last Monday. Private-equity-owned gaming company Sisal Group owns 70% of Sisal Pay, and Banca 5 the rest. The business is valued at €1bn. Proceeds from the bond, expected to be rated B2/BB-, will be used to reduce €500m of debt at Sisal Group. Sisal Pay is also trying to raise a €92.5m 6.5-year super senior revolving credit facility, according to an investor presentation seen by IFR. Sub-investment-grade Italian companies looking to raise debt often chose the bond market thanks to Italy's punitive taxes for selling loans, said a banker familiar with the matter. "It is increasingly difficult to do leveraged loans for Italian companies because of the restrictions on funding structures in the country," said the banker. "The bond product is realistically just much easier." Meanwhile, the floating-rate structure will give flexibility to the company should it wish to reduce debt. "It is a very cash-generative business. Floaters have shorter call periods, which will allow the company to delever over time," said the banker. "It will also allow leads more flexibility in distribution," he said. Leads are hoping the deal will soak up demand from CLOs and long-only high-yield accounts. Sisal Group is known to bond investors. It has a €325m 2022 FRN and a €400m 7% fixed note due 2023.

BON

2 min read

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec - 13 Dec

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec 2019 - 13 Dec 2019

Bank capital optimism lifted by UniCredit

BON ECON P&M

4 min read

EMEA

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec - 13 Dec

Steve Slater

IFR Asia 1118 - 7 Dec 2019 - 13 Dec 2019

RBNZ confirms major capital hikes

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has raised the minimum capital ratio for major banks to a world-beating 18%, sticking to its guns after a lengthy consultation process that drew stiff opposition. The Capital Review, which starts to take effect from July 1 2020, requires the four Kiwi majors - ANZ Bank New Zealand, ASB Bank, Bank of New Zealand and Westpac New Zealand - to increase total capital from a minimum of 10.5% of risk-weighted assets to 18%, knocking Finland off the top spot for the world's toughest bank capital rules, according to Citigroup research. Smaller banks face an increase from 10.5% to 16%. The average level of capital currently held by banks is 14.1%. Minimum Tier 1 capital levels have been increased from 8.5% to 16% and 14%, respectively, for the majors and non-majors, with the remainder to come from Tier 2 capital, unchanged at two percentage points in both cases. This is in line with the original proposals unveiled over two years ago for major banks, but one percentage point below the initial 17% target for the non-majors. Up to 250bp of the new 16% major bank Tier 1 capital benchmark can comprise redeemable perpetual preference shares with the remaining 1350bp to come from common equity capital, or CET1, primarily cash and common stock. Importantly, the RBNZ has allowed a longer phasing-in period of seven years rather than the original five years to reduce the economic impact of these changes. The consultation paper, “How much capital is enough?”, generated a hefty 161 submissions from market participants with many questioning whether the higher borrowing costs caused by increased capital requirements were a price worth paying for a safer banking system. RETAINING PROFITS S&P estimates that to maintain a Tier 1 capital ratio at one percentage point above the new standards, the four majors would need to raise their Tier 1 capital by a combined NZ$16.4bn (US$10.7bn), or by about 47%, compared with their capital levels as of September 30 2018. Westpac New Zealand said it would require a further NZ$2.3bn–$2.9bn of Tier 1 capital to achieve a Tier 1 capital ratio of 16%–17% in 2027, while Bank of New Zealand said it needs to increase in its CET1 capital by NZ$3bn-$4bn. ASB Bank requires around NZ$3bn more Tier 1 capital, NZ$2.5bn of which must be in CET1 capital, and noted that its parent, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, has indicated it is well-positioned to manage the new capital requirements. ANZ said the net impact will be an increase in CET1 capital of approximately A$3.0bn (NZ$3.1bn), which includes a A$1bn management buffer and is net of NZ$1.5bn of retained 2019 profits from ANZ New Zealand ahead of the anticipated higher requirements. Analysts expect the majors to focus on retained profits to meet the new rules, putting obvious downward pressure on dividends, as well as, potentially, rights issues and follow-on share offerings. S&P stressed that ANZ has the largest investment in New Zealand of the four Aussie majors and "is currently increasing capital at the group level to meet the RBNZ rules". APRA PROPOSALS S&P also warned that ANZ would be affected by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's proposal for punitive capital treatment of banks' investment into their banking subsidiaries. To prevent Australia's biggest banks from taking on additional leverage, APRA announced new plans in October to limit the majors’ exposure to overseas units. The Australian banking regulator intends to restrict the use of leverage to fund investments in subsidiaries beyond 10% of a bank's CET1 capital by forcing them to hold any capital above this threshold on a dollar-for-dollar basis. The proposals, which apply to both foreign and domestic banking or insurance subsidiaries, clearly target those Australian banks with large New Zealand subsidiaries. S&P expects the overall creditworthiness of the four Kiwi majors to remain largely unchanged and equivalent to their respective parents. It rates a

Asia

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Bellwether

The Jean and Jerry show

BELLWETHER IS THE first to put its hand up when it makes a howler, and there have been a few, but not even its most egregious typos can compare with what ABN AMRO’s research department offered up last week in the wake of UniCredit’s capital markets day. The event capped a successful year for CEO Jean Pierre Mustier, who is rapidly becoming Europe’s highest-profile banking CEO. But not so well-known to ABN, which wrote in a note following a research breakfast with the bank: “UniCredit has been a stellar performer this year as Jerry del Missier pulls the reins of the company. Its equity price has gained 24%, compared to a gain of 1% for the broader banking index.” Mustier is known for his conservative risk appetite and should not be confused with del Missier, one of Bob Diamond’s lieutenants during BarCap’s freewheeling years. That would be quite the comeback. Either del Missier is hiding inside Elkette, the cuddly toy mascot that took centre stage at the investor day, or ABN should tell us what its analysts are eating – or drinking – for breakfast. Del Missier is founder and chief investment officer of hedge fund Copper Street Capital, which is focused on capturing event-driven opportunities in the financial services sector. Being confused with the CEO of UniCredit would certainly qualify as one of those. DEUTSCHE BANK'S JAMES Ruane has clearly decided to enjoy the festive period after quitting the German bank to join UK hedge fund Bayview International. Ruane was most recently head of corporate M&A at Deutsche, where he has been busy unravelling the bank’s global empire, working on the disposal of Deutsche’s retail business in Poland and Portugal and the sale of its prime brokerage business to BNP Paribas. Ruane should be applauded for his sense of timing – his departure comes days before Deutsche’s senior management will face a grilling at the bank’s capital markets day as CEO Christian Sewing looks to provide an update on Deutsche’s latest annus horribilis. Maybe Ruane just decided it was one PowerPoint presentation too far and it’s time to kick back and enjoy Christmas. And if you’re looking for where Deutsche’s corporate M&A strategy might be heading next, a clue may lie in the identity of Ruane’s successor – chief accounting officer Andreas Loetscher. So if anyone’s looking to run the numbers over Deutsche next year, they’ll have to deal with the king of the spreadsheet. That should be enough to scare off any activists. AMID THE SEA of earnest 2020 outlook reports, Saxo Bank has kicked off the silly season with its “10 Outrageous Predictions for 2020”. According to Saxo, the predictions focus on “a series of unlikely but under-appreciated events, which if they were to occur could send shock-waves across financial markets”. They include the ECB hiking rates, UK growth doubling to 8% and the Democrats winning a clean sweep in the 2020 Presidential election. There is no mention of Brexit being done and dusted, but then again not even Saxo would be crazy enough to predict that.

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec - 13 Dec

More Bellwether

IFR Events

IFR hosts a comprehensive programme of conferences, seminars and roundtables throughout the year, providing authoritative insight into the trends and outlooks for specific regions and asset classes.

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Access a digital replica of IFR's print magazine, updated each Friday. Plus regular Special Reports and Roundtables, covering industry themes and trends.

Latest Digital Edition

Bellwether

The Jean and Jerry show

IFR 2312 - 07 Dec - 13 Dec

More Bellwether

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