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Underwriting banks are lobbying the European Central Bank to remove a roadblock to issuance of sustainability-linked bonds by making step-up payment structures eligible for its multi-billion euro bond-buying programmes but are also working on alternative structures as the wait for the next deal grows longer. Neither the ECB's Corporate Sector Purchase Programme nor its newer Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme will buy SLBs because they include a coupon step-up based on companies’ performance on environmental targets – and this is proving to be an impediment to issuance. "There is some engagement happening right now directly with the ECB," said Farnam Bidgoli, head of sustainable bonds for EMEA DCM at HSBC. The ECB’s bond-buying programmes have provided increasingly vital support during the Covid-19 crisis and the lack of eligibility for SLBs is becoming a bigger problem as banks and borrowers struggle to bring the next deal to the market. Italian utility Enel is still the first – and only – borrower to sell such bonds. It attracted a blaze of publicity when it raised a US$1.5bn SLB in September and followed up with a similar €2.5bn triple-tranche deal in October. In each case, the bonds have a 25bp step-up in coupon payments if certain targets are missed. SLBs, also known as KPI-linked or SDG-linked bonds, are tied to companies’ ESG strategies and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals via key performance indicators. A failure to hit KPIs results in the bonds’ interest payments stepping up. The ECB cannot buy such deals as it only accepts instruments with margins that change over time if they have a predefined path at issuance, which excludes SLBs as companies’ sustainability performance is uncertain. The ECB declined to comment. As the central bank can account for 40% of all orders on euro-denominated corporate bonds, its absence can have a material impact on pricing that far outweighs the benefits of sustainable finance for issuers. “Whatever benefits we think you may be able to achieve from the ESG element, it is a fraction of what you would be getting because of ECB eligibility. So [the lack of a bid from the ECB] is a big hurdle from the execution standpoint,” Bidgoli said. Banks are talking to the ECB to try and get it to change its mind and the issue has already been discussed in ICMA working groups. No formal approach has been made by the trade body to the ECB yet, but it has not been ruled out. "There are efforts to convey to ECB that it’s an issue as we try and get more of these bonds into the market, and to see if the ECB can be persuaded to review their policy," a banker said. Bankers point out that the block on buying SLBs appears to contradict the ECB's strategic aims, as SLBs could be used to help the transition to a low-carbon economy. Christine Lagarde, the bank's president, has discussed using the central bank's €2.8trn asset purchase scheme to pursue green objectives. ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS Coupon step-ups are part of a wider discussion with the ECB, which is also being sounded out on alternative structures as banks try to find other workable options that could be CSPP/PEPP-eligible and give investors confidence around the incentive or penalty relating to sustainability targets. "I think you will see other structures being developed that don’t necessarily have a step-up," Bidgoli said. "We have to look for alternatives until the ECB clarifies that point.” The donation of a "sustainability premium" to charity if companies fail to hit their targets is one option that has already been used in the loan market, where sustainability-linked loans are relatively common (US$40bn of SLLs were raised in EMEA in the first half of this year, for instance). Another possibility, also seen in the loan market, is for companies to pay a premium into an account used by the borrower specifically to improve its ESG performance. Such str

7 min read

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug - 14 Aug

Tessa Walsh

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug 2020 - 14 Aug 2020

SG faces tough balancing act in equity revamp

Societe Generale will revamp its struggling equities unit by scything back its presence in some of the complex structured products it once pioneered, after this historically important source of trading profits triggered heavy losses. The challenge it faces: lowering the risks associated with trading structured equity derivatives without giving up its prominent position in this market. French investment banks announced another sorry set of equities results in the second quarter on the back of sustaining hundreds of millions of euros of losses related to structured equity derivatives positions in the first half of the year following a collapse in stock markets and sweeping cancellations of company dividends. In part as a result of the pain from equity derivatives, BNP Paribas and Societe Generale reported overall equities revenue declines of 53% and 80% for the second quarter compared to the previous year, respectively, while Natixis recorded a €174m second-quarter loss from equities (down from a €117m profit in the same period last year). Natixis has parted ways with its chief executive, Francois Riahi, and is set to announce a new strategic plan next year, while scaling back its equity derivatives operations in the meantime. SG also confirmed plans to overhaul equity structured products, one of its core activities. Severin Cabannes, deputy chief executive of SG, told IFR the bank intends to maintain its “worldwide leading franchise" in this area. But he also said SG would significantly lower its risk appetite for more complex types of autocallable structures – a product that has been instrumental to the growth of the equity structured products market in recent years – even though that would cost the bank up to €250m in annual revenues. “The risks attached to these products in such an unprecedented, dislocated market have been shown to be too high,” said Cabannes. “When you have simpler underlying products, even in such a dislocated market, the hedging cost is more manageable.” SG last week announced that Cabannes would leave the deputy CEO role at the end of the year ahead of retiring in 2021. BNPP and SG have long derived a substantial chunk of their equities trading profits from packaging and selling structured products that provide payouts to retail investors based on the performance of stock markets. Structured equity derivatives on average accounted for 39% of equities revenues at the duo last year, according to Amrit Shahani, research director at analytics firm Coalition, compared with an average of 14% across the top 10 global investment banks. POPULAR RISKS Autocallables have been the most popular type of structured product in recent years, providing investors with exposure to stock markets while capping both gains and losses. These investments work well when markets are rising, but they create serious problems for banks when markets plummet as they did in March. Exposures from autocallables, particularly the most complex ones, leave banks vulnerable to a surge in volatility and correlation. The mass cancellation of company dividends – as happened in Europe as the Covid-19 crisis began – can also inflict heavy losses, as an assumption that dividends will be paid is baked into the price of some of these products. Equity "derivatives suffered from the tail effect of the cancellation of dividends at the end of March,” Philippe Bordenave, BNPP’s chief operating office, told IFR after the company’s second-quarter results. He said that BNPP's move into prime brokerage would make it better able to cope with such unexpected events. “We will benefit from more flow activity after our expansion in prime brokerage. This will give a better balance with structured derivatives. These add high value in good times but can suffer during crises." SG has looked to expand its flow activities, too, following the acquisition of Commerzbank’s eq

P&M

6 min read

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug - 14 Aug

Christopher Whittall, Christopher Spink

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug 2020 - 14 Aug 2020

Covid-19 and some guesswork: banks take US$70bn credit hit

Major US and European banks set aside more than US$70bn for loan losses last quarter, up from less than US$16bn a year earlier and far higher than the first quarter as they took an increasingly gloomy view on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy. The expected credit loss, or impairment charge, across 27 major US and European banks in the second quarter was US$71.2bn, compared with US$15.6bn in the second quarter of 2019, according to IFR calculations. The same banks' credit charge in the first quarter was US$58.2bn, up from US$16.1bn a year earlier. That meant the aggregate charge for expected credit losses in the first half of this year is US$129.4bn – a whopping US$97.7bn more than was booked in the first six months of 2019. Several bank executives and analysts said there is a lot of guesswork in the numbers, however. "We're very clear, we cannot forecast the future. We don't know ... It's unprecedented what's going on around the world," JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon told analysts as he announced second-quarter results. He said the true situation may not become clear for a while. "It's just going to be murky, which is why if you look at the base case, an adverse case, an extreme adverse case – they're all possible – and we're just guessing at the probabilities of those things," Dimon said. The challenge for banks is two-fold: their risk models have not gone through the type of recession and lockdown seen this year; and there is little consensus on the path of economic recovery. "KITCHEN SINKING?" That is resulting in a wide divergence in the prospective losses booked by banks. Even if they agreed on the path of recovery, credit charges would then vary by types of business, geographic footprint, the impact of government support measures, accounting rules and other factors. But broadly, banks have baked more gloomy economic prospects into their credit costs. Some banks appear to be more prudent than others, and may even be "kitchen sinking" bad news. US banks, in particular, have had a good year for trading revenues and could be more willing to front-load reserves now and write-back provisions later if the economy recovers better than expected. JP Morgan set aside US$10.5bn for loan losses in the second quarter, nine times more than a year earlier and taking its charge for the first-half to US$18.8bn – from US$2.6bn a year earlier. Bank of America's second-quarter provision was more than five times last year's level and Wells Fargo's credit cost soared to US$9.5bn in the second quarter, compared with US$500m a year earlier and US$4bn in the first quarter. Regional US banks are also braced for losses – Pittsburgh-based PNC set aside US$2.5bn in the quarter, compared with US$180m a year ago. The credit cost for 12 of the biggest US banks was US$44.6bn in the second quarter, or 6.3 times the US$7.1bn in charges they took a year earlier. That lifted their credit cost for the first half to US$79.3bn, or US$63.7bn more than a year earlier, according to IFR estimates. British banks also took big hits. HSBC's credit cost was US$3.8bn, seven times its level a year earlier, and Lloyds and NatWest Group made similarly steep increases. "The UK banks are facing a more significant economic drop than most Europeans as the UK has faced a bigger shock from the Covid-19 pandemic, and that has fed through into provision levels,” said Patrick Hunt, a partner at consultancy Oliver Wyman. Fifteen of the biggest European banks took credit charges of US$26.7bn in the second quarter, or 3.1 times the US$8.5bn they set aside a year earlier. That took their first-half credit loss charge to US$50.1bn, or US$34bn more than a year ago. BEST ESTIMATES Given the uncertainties, few banks provided guidance for the full-year. HSBC said its credit costs this year should be anywhere between US$8bn and US$13bn, wider than the US$7bn–$12bn range it estimated three months ago. It has already taken US$6.9bn

7 min read

EMEA

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug - 14 Aug

Steve Slater

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug 2020 - 14 Aug 2020

Covid-19 and some guesswork: banks take US$70bn credit hit

7 min read

EMEA

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug - 14 Aug

Steve Slater

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug 2020 - 14 Aug 2020

Argentina clinches latest restructuring

Argentina finalised a US$65bn-plus bond restructuring last week when it garnered support from three major creditor groups, ending debt talks that had seemed doomed to fail earlier this year. The government said in a statement that it had cut a deal with the Ad Hoc Group of Argentine Bondholders, the Argentina Creditor Committee and the Exchange Bondholder Group – as well as other "significant holders" of its bonds. With the backing of the majority of bondholders, the deal involving an exchange from old into new bonds is considered done, though the government has extended the deadline to August 24 to give stragglers a chance to participate. Not only was the deal one of the first major restructurings to be completed amid the Covid-19 pandemic, but it also tested the limits of the collective action clauses introduced into Argentina's bonds when it last restructured its debt in 2005 and designed to prevent a repeat performance of the country's subsequent ill-fated tussle with hold-outs. Aside from net-present value calculations, the CACs were a particular sticking point for holders who feared that Argentina would abuse such clauses through a so-called Pac-Man strategy that would have seen it playing individual groups of investors against each other until it got the support it needed. It is thought the indentures on the new bonds will help prevent such manoeuvres, though the government gave few details of the exact language in the new securities except to say it would "strengthen the effectiveness of the contractual framework". "This is the first time that CACs really got tested," said Robert Koenigsberger, founder and CIO of Gramercy, and one of the funds involved in debt negotiations. "I have my doubts about whether [the Pac-Man strategy] would have been used or whether it would have worked. We will never know. At the end of the day, the CACs worked the way they were designed to work." Yet whether the changes in language in the new bonds from Argentina and Ecuador, which completed a similar process last week, set a precedent for the growing list of sovereigns facing restructurings in a post-Covid-19 downturn remains to be seen. "As to whether this additional language will be included in CACs in new sovereign bonds, that is another matter," said Lee Buchheit, a leading sovereign debt lawyer. "I personally hope it will not. I think it would be counterproductive to have multiple versions ... being used in the market." Except under certain circumstances, Buchheit thinks the right approach would be for sovereigns to voluntarily forswear using Pac-Man type manoeuvres when restructuring their debt. "If we start down the road of amending the clause each time someone figures out a clever new manoeuvre, the text could become excessively long," he said. COVID CHALLENGES The Covid-19 pandemic also presented challenges for both sides as they sought to communicate their proposals in what was one of the first restructurings to be conducted over Zoom. Talks between Argentina's economy minister and former academic Martin Guzman and some large institutional investors were seen as a learning experience, as many of those involved were not experienced in restructurings. Zoom calls where a multitude of investors listened to the latest proposal from Guzman were simply inefficient and slowed debt talks, say some involved. "I was shaking my head because that is not a negotiation. There are, like, 40 investors that all have to say their piece. [Investors] should have relied on their financial advisers to do that kind of work," said one person involved in the talks. What finally pushed the deal past the finish line was the realisation that Argentina’s latest offer was its last – and that it had a credible Plan B, said Koenigsberger. That Plan B involved cutting a deal with the IMF first using an updated debt sustainability analysis that incorporated the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and then returning with a proposal

BON RATE

6 min read

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug - 14 Aug

Paul Kilby

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug 2020 - 14 Aug 2020

ChiNext gets its own Star turn

Investors have flocked to the first batch of ChiNext IPOs under new listing rules, hoping for a repeat of the success of Shanghai's Star market. Beijing FengShangShiJi Culture Media, Yangling Metron New Materials and Anhui Landun Photoelectron, which conducted bookbuilding last week, attracted an overwhelming response. Event promoter FengShangShiJi raised Rmb2.49bn (US$358m), almost double its original target of Rmb1.31bn. The company sold 18.02m shares, or 25% of its enlarged capital, at Rmb138.02 each, the highest issue price so far for the ChiNext board, surpassing By-Health’s 2010 listing at Rmb110 a share. The issue price translates to a 2019 P/E of 41.2, well above the unwritten cap of 23 times that has been applied to ChiNext listings for years but lower than an average of 64.8 times for its listed peers. Despite the high price tag, the retail tranche was subscribed 10,517 times, triggering a 20% clawback from the institutional tranche to leave institutions with 51% of the IPO, down from the originally planned 71%. Yangling Metron and Anhui Landun also clawed back 20% from institutional investors after their retail portions were 9,815 and 9,259 times oversubscribed, respectively. The offerings raised Rmb1.75bn and Rmb1.12bn. The three deals each attracted more than 12 million retail investors, no doubt eager to cash in on a nice first day pop. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange revamped its listing rules for the ChiNext board in June, mirroring many features of the Nasdaq-style Shanghai Star market. For instance, there will be no price limits for the first five trading days of a newly listed stock, after which it can rise or fall up to 20% a day. Until now, ChiNext has imposed a 44% cap on the first trading day, after which a stock can rise or fall 10%. The Star market has provided rich pickings for investors, with first-day gains reaching over 1,000% and average returns of 169% in its first 12 months. China Securities is the sponsor for both FengShangShiJi and Yangling Metron, while China Dragon Securities is the sponsor for Anhui Landun. LESS FOR RETAIL The recent ChiNext reforms have also paved the way for the high level of retail oversubscription. Under the new rules, issuers have to set aside more shares for institutional investors. They must leave at least 70% of a deal for institutions, up from the previous 60%. In addition, they can only claw back 10%–20% to retail if the oversubscription is 50–100 times, down from 20%–50%. This has made it more difficult for retail investors to get shares. From January to July, they were allocated an average of 0.0275% of their ChiNext IPO orders. On the three recent offerings, the ratio ranged from 0.0161% to 0.0208%. The regulators are also doing more to protect investors. “Unlike the Star market, where investors are all new investors who can bear high-trading risks, the ChiNext has a large number of existing retail investors who don’t know much about the risks involved in IPOs of innovative start-ups,” an ECM banker said. The revised ChiNext rules require new investors to have an average of Rmb100,000 in their trading account for 20 days and at least 24 months of trading experience. Under the previous rules, retail investors with less than two years of experience could trade on ChiNext by signing a risk disclosure letter and a special statement under which they accepted the risks. The SZSE began accepting applications under the new streamlined, US-style registration system on June 30. As of August 6, 363 companies have filed for ChiNext IPOs, with a combined Rmb229bn target.

EQY P&M

4 min read

Emerging Markets, Asia

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug - 14 Aug

Karen Tian, Fiona Lau

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug 2020 - 14 Aug 2020

Argentina clinches latest restructuring

BON RATE

6 min read

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug - 14 Aug

Paul Kilby

Bonds

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals makes US$2bn debut in IG bond market

Biotechnology company Regeneron Pharmaceuticals launched a US$2bn two-part bond on Friday for its inaugural deal in the US high-grade bond space. Bond proceeds will be used to term out a US$1.5bn bridge loan issued back in May that itself was used alongside US$3.5bn of cash on hand to fund a US$5bn share buyback from French pharmaceutical company Sanofi, according to LPC. Sanofi held around 23.2 million shares of Regeneron’s common stock, representing around 20.6% ownership. Sanofi intends to retain around 400,000 shares. The US$2bn two-part senior unsecured offering (rated Baa3/BBB+) was evenly split between 10 and 30-year tranches that tightened by 20bp through price progression to launch at 120bp and 160bp, respectively. At those levels, Regeneron landed 41bp-69bp wide of where slightly higher rated pharmaceutical peer AstraZeneca, A3/BBB+, is trading in the secondary after pricing similar bonds earlier in the week. On Monday, AstraZeneca priced a US$3bn three-part bond, including a US$1.3bn 10-year at 85bp over and a US$500m 30-year at 100bp over. AstraZeneca's 1.375% 2030 tightened to 79bp over in the secondary, while the 2.125% 2050 rallied to 91bp over, according to MarketAxess data. These are the latest pharmaceutical issuers since Japanese peer Takeda, rated Baa2/BBB+, priced a US$7bn four-part jumbo bond in late June, according to IFR data. Takeda's 2.05% 2030s are trading at 101bp over Treasuries while its 3.175% 2050s trade in the 145bp context, according to MarketAxess data. Regeneron is one of many pharmaceutical companies chasing down a Covid-19 treatment and has initiated phase two and three clinical trials for an antibody cocktail intended to treat and prevent the coronavirus, according to an investor presentation. The company has very little debt outstanding with a gross debt leverage of 0.7 times and negative net debt of 1.1 times. "Regeneron's investment grade rating reflects growing global scale, strong scientific expertise, and an extremely conservative balance sheet, with very low financial leverage helping to mitigate business risks," said Michael Levesque, senior vice president at Moody's. "These risks include high revenue concentration in Eylea, which faces biosimilar risk around 2024-2025, exposure to US drug pricing regulations, and pipeline execution risk." Bookrunners Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are expected to price the deal Friday.

BON

2 min read

Americas, EMEA

William Hoffman

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug 2020 - 14 Aug 2020

ChiNext gets its own Star turn

EQY P&M

4 min read

Emerging Markets, Asia

IFR 2345 - 08 Aug - 14 Aug

Karen Tian, Fiona Lau

Bonds

Investors drive hard bargain on cargo airline high-yield debut

Western Global Airlines' first ever high-yield bond offering was downsized and priced well wide of talk on Friday. Unlike the majority of deals seen in the primary market in recent weeks, which have been for debt refinancing, the privately owned cargo airline was raising cash to fund the sale of up to 49% of the company's shares to an employee share-ownership program. The Esterio, Florida-based company was founded in 2013 by Jim and Sunny Neff, who remain majority shareholders. The five-year bullet senior unsecured bond offering was originally sized at US$420m when it was announced on July 29, but in a sign of weak investor demand the deal was downsized to US$350m with pricing pushed well wide of initial talk. The structure was also improved for investors to a bullet format, after initially being pitched with a two-year non-call period. The deal was priced on Friday with a coupon of 10.375%, and priced below par at 98.625 for a yield to maturity of 10.738%. Price talk had previously been indicated at 8.75%-9.00%. The bond was rated B3/B-/B+. Average Single B bonds yield 5.54%, according to ICE BofA indices. The company was also planning to fund the share purchase with a US$30m unrated term loan A and around US$30m of cash. The employee share ownership program will use the proceeds to acquire a minimum of 30% and maximum of 49% of the owners' shares holdings, according to an offering memo. CARGO BOOST Cargo airlines have benefited in recent months by an increase in online shopping, and by a reduction of flights by passenger aircraft, which also have capacity for cargo. Revenues at Western Global increased to US$181.2 in the first half of 2020, a US$59.8m increase on the same period last year. Around 40% of that increase was a result of reduced passenger aircraft traffic, the company said. While these trends will benefit Western Global in the short term, rating agencies flagged longer term concerns. "The company has yet to demonstrate consistent operating results and the ability to operate with financial leverage, albeit relatively low, at the time when the company is experiencing a shift in ownership with associated changes to its corporate governance arrangements," said Inna Bodeck, a vice president at Moody's Investors Service. Analysts at S&P said Western's small scale of operations in a very competitive air cargo industry "makes it especially vulnerable to pricing pressures and volume declines during periods of sustained market weakness." The company's largest customers are UPS, Amazon and the Department of Defense which accounted for around 53% of revenue in the first six months of 2020. A company website said it owned 19 wide-body aircraft. Royal Bank of Canada was left lead on the bond sale, with Truist Securities as a bookrunner and Regions Securities as co-manager.

BON

3 min read

Americas

David Bell

IFR Events

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Bellwether

FICC of pique

CHRISTIAN SEWING SIGNED off for the summer with an upbeat message for staff after Deutsche Bank posted a decent set of second-quarter earnings. Sewing said the results served as a vindication of his strategy. But a dive into the numbers tells a different story. Revenues at the corporate bank, the cornerstone of Sewing’s turnaround, rose 3%, but the knockout performance came from the investment bank, where revenues leapt 52% on the back of that old Deutsche powerhouse, FICC – the lightning rod for so much criticism and a symbol of the free-wheeling image that Sewing is so desperate to shed. Sewing should be applauded for his turnaround efforts, but don’t take credit for credit. Sewing also pointed to the results of the bank’s “people survey” as further evidence he is steering the ship in the right direction. “We have seen the highest commitment score since 2012, and an all-time high for enablement,” he said. And if that’s not enough, Sewing said the survey showed staff "also support our strategy more and you are happier with your managers". Given that very few will have seen their manager since March, you wouldn’t expect anything less. ROYAL BANK OF CANADA has become the latest bank to allow its staff to work from home until 2021. But if their London-based capital markets staff are stuck for something to do, they could always follow the lead of their US colleagues, who have set up RBCCM US Kids Club. It’s a virtual summer camp at which staff volunteer to entertain each other’s children via Webex, with the Kids Club offering “story time” and “weekly sing-alongs”. Could this also be a chance to raise some money for good causes? Bellwether is surely not alone in being willing to pay good money to watch Darrell Uden and Josh Critchley belting out some tunes from Frozen to bemused toddlers. GOLDMAN SACHS HAS managed to maintain its record for paying out billions in dollars in fines without accepting guilt or liability – but keeping a straight face – after reaching a US$3.9bn settlement with the Malaysian government over the bank’s role in the 1MBD corruption scandal. While some bank bosses might count their lucky stars and head for the hills, Goldman’s boss David Solomon headed for the Hamptons, where he performed a live set at an open air gig as his alter ago DJ D-Sol. But his fun was cut short when it emerged that New York’s health authorities are investigating the concert for rampant violations of social-distancing rules. Suffice to say, Solomon is in hot water, with New York Governor Andrew Cuomo having a pop on Twitter. A spokesperson for Solomon said: “The vast majority of the audience appeared to follow the rules, but he’s troubled that some violated them and put themselves and others at risk." Which was pretty much the line Goldman used on 1MBD. CONTINUING THE THEME of law-related levity, HSBC has appointed Egmont Schaefer and Pedro Urresti as co-heads of FIG corporate banking for Europe, according to a memo. Apparently, all of Pedro’s direct reports are “under Urresti”.

IFR 2344 - 01 Aug - 07 Aug

More Bellwether

IFR Events

IFR hosts a comprehensive programme of conferences, seminars and roundtables throughout the year, providing authoritative insight into the trends and outlooks for specific regions and asset classes.

View Events Calendar

IFR Digital Edition

Access a digital replica of IFR's print magazine, updated each Friday. Plus regular Special Reports and Roundtables, covering industry themes and trends.

Latest Digital Edition

Bellwether

FICC of pique

IFR 2344 - 01 Aug - 07 Aug

More Bellwether

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