Long-term optimism for selective IPO market
While market volatility has increased in recent weeks, bankers started 2026 with a broadly positive outlook for European ECM, as shown by Queens Lane Advisory's survey of 59 ECM practitioners across 42 banks, law and accounting firms and stock exchanges.
While respondents did not believe “the floodgates have suddenly opened”, the majority said the market is open for quality assets and well-prepared companies.
London in particular is cited as a key part, with 55% expecting to see the UK lead IPO activity in Europe this year, though likely weighted towards the second half.
Amsterdam, the Nordic region and Germany were also all named as listing destinations likely to see notable activity, with Germany in particular benefiting from a pipeline of defence IPOs that has already delivered submarine parts maker Gabler Group to be followed by military components business Vincorion, which launched its listing on March 6.
It is important to note that the survey was conducted before the outbreak of the Iran conflict which has some potential to further skew the pipeline.
Defence stocks have continued to remain buoyant, even amid rising volatility, with bankers on Vincorion describing such deals as “the right asset at the right time” with the conflict highlighting the fundamentals behind the sector.
Germany’s pipeline remains clear with military vehicle business KNDS expected to continue the run of deals after Easter, while the wider industrial and manufacturing space is expected to play a role with listings such as TK Elevator.
For other sectors the impact of recent volatility remains to be seen and, ahead of the Iran conflict, participants highlighted the unpredictability of the geopolitical environment.
“Companies are continuing to prepare for IPOs – the question is more about timing and when market conditions stabilise,” said Aadam Brown, founder of Queens Lane Advisory. “If a company has already committed significant time and resources to preparing for an IPO, it is unlikely to stop the process entirely. Stakeholders will typically monitor how conditions evolve over the coming weeks and months to time the public execution phase of the IPO.”
Right name, right price
“The market is broadly open for most quality issuers,” said one survey participant. “It’s highly executable, but companies need to shape their propositions properly to suit the audience.”
Early preparation was the most commonly referenced factor that differentiated successful IPOs, with 51% citing this while 41% highlighted flexibility on valuation.
“Some founders of the bigger companies in the pipeline are preferring not to come to an IPO track until their valuation hits X, which will only happen through a future funding round, perhaps without considering that executing an IPO at a price that’s successful in the long term gets a lot harder if you try and maximise that valuation beforehand,” said one participant.
Valuation is seen as particularly important for private equity-backed IPOs, with 73% highlighting pricing discipline and deal size as mattering most for sponsor-led deals.
“It is important to remember that an IPO is not just one transaction,” said a participant. “An IPO is the start of many transactions and you shouldn’t focus on maximising the value at day one but instead focus on achieving that within T+24 months.”
The specific name attached is also important, with one respondent saying: “Some institutions rank sponsors and will not engage with those at the bottom while being more likely to engage with those at the top.”
Still to see on Pisces
While broadly optimistic about the London Stock Exchange, respondents were more divided on the impact of the UK’s Private Intermittent Securities and Capital Exchange System – or Pisces – which was approved last year but is still waiting for the first trades.
Two companies, venture capital fund Oxford Science Enterprises and board game company QPlay, are pursuing listings under the framework, albeit on separate platforms. Oxford Science Enterprises has opted for the LSE’s Private Securities Market while QPlay has chosen JP Jenkins' platform.
The LSE is part of LSEG, which also owns IFR.
Just over half of those surveyed said Pisces is unlikely to materially affect IPO decisions, with 29% saying it would act as an alternative for some, particularly founder-led and venture capital-backed businesses seeking controlled liquidity.
“It feels like Pisces is going to be a selective route for a small number of companies,” said one respondent.
Some were more positive, with one describing it as a “stepping stone” and another saying it would “likely accelerate IPO readiness”.
“Pisces is likely to build momentum over time,” said Brown. “Those involved in the early discussions have been broadly positive. As with any new market structure, there is typically a period of observation before participants become more active.”