If there is one thing about which a large number of the great and good of the financial markets would have been wrong this year, it is where interest rates and the consequent yield on government debt would be at this juncture. Especially in the more developed markets.
With economies around the world failing to behave as predicted and geopolitical events further unnerving markets, central banks have have their work cut out to come up with solutions. But not everyone is convinced their strategies are justified.
Despite better-than-expected second-quarter figures, Turkey’s dream of becoming a tiger economy remain national fantasy.
The International Monetary Fund has come to the rescue of a growing number of African nations during the past few years, as a result of economic shocks that have hit many countries in the region hard. By Jason Mitchell.
Africa’s sovereign bond market is rapidly expanding, generating concerns that many countries in the region have not learned from past mistakes and are becoming too indebted again. By Jason Mitchell.
When Jair Bolsonaro took office as Brazil’s new president at the start of January, investors hoped it would draw a line under the economic pain and political dysfunction that has blighted the country over the past five years. But things have not turned out as hoped. By Ben Edwards.
Despite facing myriad economic challenges and having been obliged to accept an undesired IMF loan, hopes are that Pakistan can extract itself from its hapless situation.
Nepal, once poor and unruly, is enjoying a golden era, thanks to political stability, new infrastructure and a programme to making it a hydro-exporting power. It wants a credit rating in place by mid-2020, with an inaugural US dollar bond to follow suit.
The investment community is watching on nervously as Mexico’s heavily indebted state-owned oil company teeters on the edge of a junk rating precipice. By Ben Edwards.
Former TV comedian-turned president Volodymyr Zelensky’s commitment to economic reforms has put the smile back on the faces of investors in Ukraine ahead of a new round of IMF funding.
In the face of ultra-low yields in the Japanese government bond market, the country’s traditionally conservative institutional investor base has become more adventurous in its quest for yield. With the JGB curve on track to become entirely negatively yielding, that dynamic is here to stay – for now.
Sustainability is a key concern for Fiji, the host of this year’s Asian Development Bank annual meetings. Its low-lying outer islands are under threat from rising sea levels as a result of climate change, and ocean plastics and overfishing are a growing risk to its revenues.
Best laid plans: Few would be so presumptuous as to lay claim to the ability to plot the progress of the global economy with unerring accuracy on a constant basis. But there are still many that make the prediction game their stock in trade – with varying degrees of success.