Bond markets have experienced an issuance bonanza this year, with both the size and frequency of deals in the ascendancy. Triple A activity has traditionally been frenetic in the first quarter of the year, with much of the issuance from the major agencies coming near the start of the year. There has, therefore, been a lot of Triple A paper knocking about in the first months of 2009. But in certain fundamental respects, the Triple A sector in 2009 has started to look very different from previous

Forget Triple A: as long ago as September 2007, UBS's head of CDO research, Douglas Lucas predicted that even the super senior debt would see not just rating migration but principal loss. Of the 122 ABS CDOs backed by US sub-prime mortgages that he studied, 10% of bonds suffered a collateral loss of 37% leading to an expected tranche loss of 1%. At junior Triple A level, collateral losses of 24% would affect 30% of bonds, leading to an expected tranche loss of 20%. At that time Lucas said this c

Cades was founded in 1996 as an integral part of the French central government. Its remit was to amortise social debt until its objective was achieved. According to the original plan the issuer should have ceased to exist in January this year, although additional transfers have extended the operational life of Cades. The latest additional debt transfer is likely to see Cades in operation until 2021, based on current projections. In order to finance its operations Cades has raised both convention

ICO is a 100% state-owned institution founded in 1971, supervised by the Spanish central bank and rated Aaa/AA+/AAA in line with its guarantor, the Kingdom of Spain. Its role is to "support and foster any economic activities which contribute to the growth and the improved distribution of the national wealth. [In particular activities] which, on account of their social, cultural, innovative or ecological significance, merit priority attention." In order to provide direct financing to fulfil its o

Europe's largest issuers have had to adapt to dramatically changing circumstances in recent months. There has been a marked increase in both the number of issuers and the overall growth in borrowing volume since last year. The pricing they have been able to offer has undergone an almost overnight transformation, due to European sovereigns being forced to guarantee the debt required by their beleaguered banks, struggling against mounting credit losses. Many issuers have responded by seizing all a

General Electric finally fell from its theoretically significant Triple A rating in March when S&P lowered downgraded the credit a notch to AA+ before Moody’s struck with a two-notch relegation to Aa2. The move was certainly not welcome for the conglomerate. But now that it has a stable credit outlook, investors value the implied stability. In many ways, it was a godsend for GE. GE reached a 52-week low on March 4 of US$5.73 as uncertainty about GE and, in particular, GE Capital, its struggling