JP Morgan's Dimon says private credit likely not a systemic risk
While the private credit market is now larger than both the leveraged loan and high-yield bond markets, it likely does not pose a systemic risk, JP Morgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said in an annual shareholder letter published Monday.
Prasad Gollakota
It is unusual for a listed company to buy income-bearing securities of a peer as a treasury decision. In orthodox corporate finance, surplus capital is meant to do one of three things: fund projects that clear the hurdle rate, preserve liquidity, or be returned to shareholders. It is not normally redeployed into another company exposed to much the same trade, especially at a lower yield than the investing company pays on its own stock.
US president Donald Trump loves a weekend social media post, repeatedly divulging market-moving information on these supposed days of rest ever since ordering US forces to start bombing Iran on February 28, the last Saturday of the month.
Convulsions in global bond markets dealt a blow to banks’ interest rate trading desks in March following the outbreak of the Iran war, inflicting losses on some and taking the shine off what had otherwise promised to be another stellar quarter for macro traders.
First-quarter fees from equity capital markets activity surged 49% to more than US$5bn and a rush of takeovers in late March lifted the value of announced M&A above US$1.2trn for a second consecutive quarter, as war in the Middle East made only a temporary dent on dealmaking appetite.
The Iran war and a mounting energy crisis battered UK government bonds in March, with short-dated Gilts registering their worst month in nearly three years.
Sealed Air was on course to raise just over US$7bn-equivalent in the euro and US dollar debt markets on Thursday as part of the funding for its take-private buyout by CD&R. But the packaging company was forced to change the terms and widen pricing to compensate investors casting a wary eye on the sponsor.
The huge bid for top-tier SSA issuers this year is expected to continue for benchmark deals after Easter, even as other parts of the capital markets bow under the uncertainty generated by the Middle East war.
Slovenia has become the fourth European sovereign to the tap the Panda bond market, selling a Rmb4bn (US$579.2m) three-year deal at 1.89%, as the renminbi becomes an increasingly attractive funding currency.
Egypt has sidestepped the inactive public bond market for Middle Eastern issuers by raising as much as US$500m from two privately placed taps.
ClearLight is preparing its first solar securitization in what has been a slow start to the year in this corner of the ABS market.
KKR is hitting the commercial mortgage-backed security market to refinance an office tower in San Francisco that was once the headquarters for Dropbox, which has vacated the premises and been replaced by a roster of other corporate tenants.
CLO bankers are struggling to get deals priced, especially ahead of the long Easter holiday weekend, with funding costs elevated due to the war in Iran, which is also curtailing investor risk appetite.
A landmark investment by the United Nations-backed Green Climate Fund is set to transform a niche sustainable soybean financing vehicle into a US$1bn initiative and pave the way for extending its model into areas like cotton, fishing and rice.
ClimateWise, an insurance grouping on climate and nature-related risks that is approaching 20 years of operation, has named Ian Branagan of RenaissanceRe and Tokio Marine Kiln’s Vivek Syal as co-chairs.
French private debt and equity firm Eurazeo's Planetary Boundaries fund has secured more than half of its €750m target, which it intends to keep in place as fundraising continues.
Madison Air Solutions launched its US$2.2bn NYSE IPO early Monday that will allow it to recapitalize following a recent acquisition, becoming the latest industrial with ties to AI infrastructure to fund in the new issue market this year.
National Healthcare Properties filed for a Nasdaq IPO on Monday, a move the senior housing-focused REIT is using to recapitalize its balance sheet and potentially fund future acquisitions.
SpaceX's record-breaking IPO moves another step closer on Monday as lead banks brief the syndicate, days after the confidential filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission that puts the deal on track to price in June.
Blackstone-backed AirTrunk is planning a US$1bn–$1.5bn data centre real estate investment trust IPO on the Singapore Exchange later this year, people with knowledge of the transaction said.
Sealed Air was on course to raise just over US$7bn-equivalent in the euro and US dollar debt markets on Thursday as part of the funding for its take-private buyout by CD&R. But the packaging company was forced to change the terms and widen pricing to compensate investors casting a wary eye on the sponsor.
Syndicated lending in EMEA totalled US$309bn in the first quarter of 2026, 19% lower than in the first three months of 2025, according to LPC data, but the loan market remained resilient in the face of persistent geopolitical and economic headwinds.
Against the backdrop of volatility, induced by the war in the Middle East, the emergence of AI as a buzzword and its uncertain, potential impact across various industry sectors, as well as simmering headlines around private credit portfolios, US lenders ushered nearly US$779bn through the broadly syndicated loan market in the first quarter, a 6% decline compared to the first three months of 2025.
Syndicated lending in G3 currencies in Asia Pacific ex-Japan plunged to a five-year low in the first three months of 2026, posting the lowest quarterly tally since the coronavirus pandemic as the conflict in the Middle East weighed heavily on global financial markets.
Liquidity concerns are rising for non-traded business development companies as AI-driven fears over software-heavy portfolios spur withdrawals, though the vehicles can absorb about a year of 5% quarterly redemptions without forced sales, market participants say.
Shit happens
If Jamie Dimon was worried that First Brands and Tricolor were evidence of individual “cockroaches” in private credit, then Market Financial Solutions, a collapsed UK bridge loan provider, represents an infestation, judging by some of its borrowers, which include people accused of financial crimes. There are also a number of celebrities – and Gillian McKeith.
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It is unusual for a listed company to buy income-bearing securities of a peer as a treasury decision. In orthodox corporate finance, surplus capital is meant to do one of three things: fund projects that clear the hurdle rate, preserve liquidity, or be returned to shareholders. It is not normally redeployed into another company exposed to much the same trade, especially at a lower yield than the investing company pays on its own stock.
Private credit mishaps are coming at us with such speed and intensity that many of the stories are blurring into one. But rather than the private credit crisis dragging banks down, it might give them an opportunity to play offensively in this space.
The easiest way to hide a credit loss is not to deny it. It is to say it has not yet arrived. That was one of the quiet accounting failures exposed by the global financial crisis: losses were often recognised too late, only after the damage was obvious. IFRS 9 was supposed to fix that by forcing lenders to book expected credit losses earlier, using forward-looking judgment rather than waiting for the wreckage.
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